Gold analysis 19.12.2019

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session with the decline in the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them after the disclosure of the decisions and trends of monetary policy makers at the Bank of Japan and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected Thursday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world .

At exactly 03:47 AM GMT, gold price futures for February delivery rose 0.16% to trade at $ 1,481.70 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,479.40 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on an upward price gap after yesterday’s trading was concluded At $ 1,479.40 an ounce, with the US dollar index down 0.10% to 97.31 compared to the opening at 97.40.

We have followed the monetary policy makers ’decision with the Japanese Central Bank to keep negative interest rates at 0.10%, which was expected in the markets, with the disclosure of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy statement that reflected the Japanese central bank’s provision of more flexibility in monetary policy while providing facilities Funding for ETFs with the aim of improving liquidity in the ETF market.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the release of the current account reading from the US economy, which may reflect a narrowing of the deficit to $ 122 billion compared to $ 128 billion during the second quarter, in conjunction with the disclosure of the Philadelphia industrial index reading by the largest industrialized country globally, which may Reflects the shrinkage in breadth to 8.1 in value from 10.4 last November.

This also comes in conjunction with the issuance of the aid claims index for the week that passed on December 14th of this year, which may reflect a decline by 27 thousand requests to 225 thousand requests compared to 252 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, while the reading of the subsidy applications index may explain to investors For the week that ended on the seventh of this month, an increase of 4 thousand requests to 1,671 thousand applications compared to 1,667 thousand requests.

Up to the disclosure of the US housing market data with the release of the Existing Home Sales Index, which may show a decline of 2.1% to 5.44 million homes compared to a 2.2% rise at 5.46 million homes in October, and this comes in conjunction with the release of the leading indicators reading that may clarify An increase of 0.1% compared to a decline of 0.1% in the previous reading for the month of October.

Other than that, we followed, we followed yesterday, European Commission President Von der Line expressed the European Union’s readiness to start talks on a trade agreement with Britain on February 1, explaining Brussels’s intention to make the best use of the time available in the talks, adding that in the event that Reaching a trade agreement with Britain by the end of next year 2020 will be the end of the road, while stating that the harm resulting from the failure to reach a trade agreement will reflect more on the United Kingdom than its impact on the European Union.

This came hours after the statements of the spokesman for British Prime Minister James Slack on Tuesday, in which he expressed the fact that the election statement was clear about excluding any extension in the transitional period, pointing out that his country’s government is working to start negotiations on future trade relations with the European Union as soon as possible. Time, adding that the government intends to build trade relations with the union by January 2021.

Slack also stressed at the time that Britain would leave the customs union and the single market for the eurozone under any circumstances, and this was reported on Monday that Britain's exit agreement from the European Union will be presented to Parliament next Friday and that the agreement aims to set agreed terms between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brussels in He formed a law, while expressing his government's confidence in moving forward in securing a long-term free trade agreement with the union.

In the same vein, we also followed up this week at the beginning of this week, the report that touched on the fact that British Prime Minister Johnson will work to change the law to ensure that the transition period for his country’s exit from the European Union does not extend beyond the end of next year 2020, which may pose a potential challenge for him because many Some observers of the developments of Britain's exit from the European Union believe that reaching a trade deal between the two parties needs more time.

Technical analysis

The price of gold returns to fluctuation in a narrow path stable around SMA 50, and therefore, there is no change to the downside corrective scenario that is moving inside the descending channel that appears in the picture, waiting to test 1462.00 then 1447.00 levels as initial negative stops, noting that a break of 1489.00 will stop the downside Expected and leading the price to restore the bullish main path again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1460.00 support and 1485.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.