EUR analysis 18.12.2019

The single currency fluctuated the euro in a narrow range slanting back down during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session in four sessions from its highest since August 13 against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Wednesday by the economies of the euro area, which includes a conservative talk European Central Bank Christine Lagarde and amid the scarcity of economic data on Wednesday by the US economy and looking forward to the speech of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At exactly 05:27 AM GMT, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 1.1131 levels, which is the lowest level for the husband during the trading session compared to the opening levels at 1.1150, while the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1154.

Markets are looking for Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, to release the PPI reading, which is a preliminary indication of inflationary pressures that may reflect 0.1% growth versus a 0.2% contraction last October. This comes before we witness the speech of European Central Bank Governor Christine Lagarde. Opening ceremony at the European Central Bank seminar in Frankfurt, held in honor of Benoit Core.

Markets are also looking to Germany to reveal the IFO reading of the business climate, which may show a widening of 95.9 compared to 95.0 last November, as the reading of the same index may indicate a widening to 93.0 compared to 92.1, and the same indicator reading may reflect current assessments. It also expanded to 98.1 compared to 97.9 in November.

Up to the disclosure of inflation data for the eurozone economies as a whole with the release of the annual final reading of the consumer price index, which may reflect the stability of growth at 1.0%, little changed from the initial reading for the month of November and compared to 0.7% in the previous reading for the month of October, as well The substantial annual reading of the same indicator may also show stability in growth of 1.3%, also little changed from the previous initial reading and against 1.1%.

On the other hand, investors are looking forward to the participation of a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve Bank of Elle Brenard in a panel discussion entitled "Politics, Technology and Globalization" within the European Central Bank seminar held in honor of Benoit Core in Frankfurt, before we witness a talk Another member of the Federal Reserve and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans at the Economic Club Indiana lunch.

This comes hours after US President Donald Trump called on members of the Federal Committee to cut interest rates further after reducing this year three times by 25 basis points to between 1.50% and 1.75%, and this came through his tweet to him, which he touched upon The US dollar’s ​​position remains strong against other currencies, and almost no inflation, so it is time for further rate cuts to increase exports.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar pair reached the level of 1.1180 yesterday and bounced down significantly from there, to test the support of the bullish intraday channel, noting that the EMA50 continues to provide positive support for the price, waiting for the contribution to pay the price to breach the mentioned level and open the way for visiting the 1.1280 level that represents Our next goal.

Therefore, we will maintain our bullish expectations for the upcoming period unless 1.1108 level is broken and stability below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1080 support and 1.1230 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.