Gold analysis 17.12.2019

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted toward decline during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the second session in four sessions from its highest since November 7, neglecting the negative stability of the US dollar index near its lowest in five weeks according to the inverse relationship between them after The minutes of the latest Australian Central Bank meeting were revealed, on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At exactly 03:30 AM GMT, gold price futures for February delivery fell 0.02% to trade at $ 1,480.30 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,480.60 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on an upward price gap after it concluded yesterday's trading At $ 1,480.50 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 97.09 compared to the opening at 97.14.

We have followed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s disclosure of the minutes of the meeting of the Australian Central Bank held on the third of this month in which the short-term benchmark interest rates were fixed at the lowest ever for the second consecutive meeting at 0.75%, and the minutes touched on the willingness of monetary policy makers The Australian central bank has to expand monetary policy easing if the need arises.

We would like to point out that the Australian Central Bank Governor Philip Liu Noh last week indicated that his country's GDP data were broadly in line with expectations and that confident consumers will spend more, as he addresses the fact that many citizens in his country have high debt, which may make spending It takes a longer time, explaining that the weak consumption growth was a surprise in the gross domestic product of the second largest gold producer in the world.

It is noteworthy that the Australian Treasury Department revealed yesterday its economic and financial forecasts for the middle of the fiscal year 2019/2020, which expires on the 30th of next June, which included achieving a surplus of 6.1 billion Australian dollars without previous expectations last April with a surplus of 11.0 billion Australian dollars, and came That is, with growth expectations reduced to 2.25% from 2.75% and wages growth expectations reduced to 2.50% from 2.75%.

In the same context, Australian Treasury Secretary Josh Friedenburg also expressed yesterday that the forecast contains "significant write-offs of revenues against the backdrop of global and local economic headwinds," while denouncing concerns about the economic slowdown and opposition to calls for additional spending, such as what was announced recently in Both New Zealand and Japan, the government's cash balance projections have also been cut below A $ 5.0 billion.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the release of housing market data by the US economy with the release of each of the start-up homes and building permits, and amid expectations that building permits will decline by 3.8% to about 1,405 thousand permits compared to a rise of 5.0% at 1,461 thousand permits in October / October, while start-up homes may reflect an increase of 2.0% to 1,340,000 homes compared to a rise of 3.8% at 1,314,000 homes.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest economy in the world with the release of the industrial production index, which may show a rise of 0.8% compared to a decline of 0.8% in October. While the Energy Utilization Index reading may show the acceleration of growth to 77.4% compared to 76.7% in September, leading to the release of the employment and employment statistics reading, which may reflect a decrease to 7.01 million compared to 7.02 million in September.

Other than that, we followed last Sunday, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer stated that the first stage of the trade deal between his country and Beijing, which was reached last Friday, was "completely completed" and that America's exports to China would double over the next two years, and this came in conjunction with the failure of Washington to activate The additional tariffs of 15% on Chinese goods and goods worth $ 160 billion, which were to be activated before the agreement was reached.

Technical analysis

The price of gold shows narrow trading since yesterday, to settle around the level of 1475.00, and as long as the price is below 1489.00, the downside corrective scenario will remain valid for the next period, regular within the descending channel that appears in the above chart, waiting for the resumption of the downward slope whose primary targets are at 1461.00 Then 1447.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 1460.00 support and 1485.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.