EUR analysis 17.12.2019

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session against the US dollar on the threshold of economic developments and data expected on Tuesday by the economies of the euro area and the US economy, the largest economy in the world, and in the shadow of market pricing for the developments of Britain's exit file from the European Union and the statements of the Ambassador of China Germany has yesterday that his country will not stand idly by if Berlin prohibits Huawei's fifth-generation network equipment, citing the millions of German cars it will import.

At 05:16 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.04% to 1.1149 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1144, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1156, while achieving the lowest at 1.1134.

The markets are looking by Italy, the third largest economy in the eurozone, for the publication of the reading of the trade balance, which may explain the widening of the surplus to the value of 2.82 billion euros against 2.78 billion euros last October, and that comes before we witness about the economies of the euro area as a whole. Seasonally, the Trade Balance Index, which may also reflect the widening of the surplus to 19.7 billion euros, compared to 18.3 billion euros last September.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the release of housing market data by the US economy with the release of each of the start-up homes and building permits, and amid expectations that building permits will decline by 3.8% to about 1,405 thousand permits compared to a rise of 5.0% at 1,461 thousand permits in October / October, while start-up homes may reflect an increase of 2.0% to 1,340,000 homes compared to a rise of 3.8% at 1,314,000 homes.

This comes before we witness the disclosure of industrial sector data for the largest economy in the world with the release of the industrial production index, which may show a rise of 0.8% compared to a decline of 0.8% in October. While the Energy Utilization Index reading may show the acceleration of growth to 77.4% compared to 76.7% in September, leading to the release of the employment and employment statistics reading, which may reflect a decrease to 7.01 million compared to 7.02 million in September.

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar shows sideways trading since yesterday, and maintains its stability above the level of 1.1108, noting that the price is moving inside a new bullish intraday channel that supports the chances of continuing the expected bullish trend for the coming period, waiting for the break of the 1.1180 level to confirm the extension of the upside wave towards 1.1280 as the next main target .

Thus, we will continue to favor the bullish trend over the intraday and short term, provided stability above 1.1108, indicating that SMA 50 continues to support the suggested bullish wave.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.1080 support and 1.1240 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.