AUD analysis 11.12.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session against the US dollar, following the developments and economic data that it followed from the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected on Wednesday by the American economy, which includes the decisions and directions of monetary policy makers at the Federal Reserve and the press conference of the governor Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in Washington.

At 02:24 am GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.03% to 0.6811 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6809, after the pair achieved its highest during the trading session at 0.6816, while achieving the lowest at 0.6805.

On the Australian economy, we followed the disclosure of the Weissback consumer confidence index, which showed a decline of 1.9% to 95.1 compared to a rise of 4.5% at 97.0 last November, and this comes hours after Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Liu expressed his The fact that many citizens in his country have high debts, which may make spending take a longer time, explaining that the recent weakening of consumption growth was a surprise.

On the other hand, investors are anticipating the US economy to disclose inflation data with the release of the consumer price index, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.2% compared to 0.4% in October, while a substantial reading of the same indicator may show stability in growth of 0.2%, While the annual reading of the index may show accelerated growth to 2.0% compared to 1.8%, the fundamental annual reading of the index may reflect the stability of growth at 2.3%.

This comes in conjunction with the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held in Washington, through which it is expected to remain on the short-term benchmark interest rates for the second consecutive meeting at between 1.75% and 2.00%, while revealing the expectations of the members of the committee for the rates of growth, inflation and unemployment. In addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference that Fed Governor Jerome Powell will hold about half an hour after the FOMC meeting ends to comment on the Fed’s policy makers ’decisions that have been witnessing widespread criticism by US President Donald Trump who is asking the Federal Reserve and his Governor Powell to move forward in Reducing interest on federal funds "to zero or less".

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar pair is hovering against the US dollar around the EMA50, showing some slight bearish slope that is affected by the stochastic negativity, noting that the index is trying to get rid of its negative momentum and obtain a positive momentum that contributes to pushing the price to resume the bullish trend.

Until now, we continue to favor the bullish trend for the next period unless 0.6755 level is broken and stability below it, noting that our next main target is at 0.7015.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6790 support and 0.6870 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.