AUD analysis 10.12.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the fourth session in eight sessions from the lowest since October 17 against the US dollar following the speech of the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Liu in Sydney in addition to the developments and economic data that he reported on The Australian economy is on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today by the American economy, which includes launching the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in Washington

At exactly 02:31 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair rose against the US dollar by 0.18% to 0.6835 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6823, after the pair achieved its highest during the trading session at 0.6837, while achieving the lowest at 0.6819.

This has been followed by the speech of the Australian Central Bank Governor Philip Liu, which he noted that the country's GDP data were broadly in line with expectations and that confident consumers will spend more, as he touched that many citizens in His country has high debts, which could make spending take longer, explaining that weak consumption growth was a surprise in GDP.

This came before we witnessed the disclosure of the Australian housing market data with the release of the house price index, which showed a rise of 2.4% compared to a decline of 0.7% in the second quarter, outperforming the expectations that indicated a rise of 0.5%, while the annual reading of the same index indicated a decline in the decline to 3.7% compared to 7.4% in the previous annual reading for the second quarter, also outperforming expectations that indicated a decline to 4.6%.

We also followed up on the Australian economy, revealing the reading of the Australian National Bank’s business confidence index, which showed stability at zero levels compared to its value of 2 last October, while reading the same indicator of confidence in the current conditions showed stability widening at a value of 4.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting by the American economy the disclosure of the final reading of the productivity index and the cost of one business, and it is expected that the productivity index reading will show a 0.3% decline compared to a 0.1% decline in the initial reading for the third quarter and a growth of 2.3% in the previous reading for the second quarter, While the cost index reading may show a slowdown in growth to 3.4% compared to 3.6% in the first reading and 2.6% in the second quarter.

Other than that, the markets are looking forward to the launching of the FOMC meeting, which takes place today and tomorrow, Wednesday in Washington, through which the short-term reference interest rates for the second consecutive meeting are expected to remain between 1.75% and 2.00% in conjunction with the disclosure of Committee members' expectations for growth, inflation and unemployment rates, as well as the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell tomorrow, exactly half an hour after the FOMC meeting ends to comment on the decisions of the Federal Reserve monetary policy makers, which has been witnessing widespread criticism recently by US President Donald Trump who is calling on the Federal Reserve and his Powell Governor to go Move ahead to cut federal funds interest "to zero or less."

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar continues to fluctuate in a narrow path, and is still inside the bullish channel that appears in the picture, and therefore, the bullish trend scenario will remain intact as it remains unchanged for the next period, relying on price stability above 0.6755 level, noting that our next main target Up to 0.7015.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6790 support and 0.6870 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.