EUR analysis 09.12.2019

The euro currency fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its rebound to the fifth session in seven sessions from the lowest since October 10 against the US dollar on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Monday by the economies of the euro area and amid the scarcity of economic data By the US economy earlier this week, which carries the Fed meeting and the European Central Bank meeting.

At exactly 05:09 am GMT, the euro pair rose against the US dollar by 0.02% to 1.1057 levels compared to the opening levels at 1.1055, after the pair achieved its highest level during the trading session at 1.1062, while it achieved the lowest at 1.1051, knowing that The pair started the trading session on a falling price gap after it concluded the trading last week at 1.1060 levels.

The market is currently looking for Germany, the largest economy in the eurozone, to reveal the current account reading, which may reflect a shrinking surplus to 20.0 billion euros against 25.5 billion euros last September, in conjunction with the release of the trade balance reading, which may also show a shrinking surplus to The value of 19.0 billion euros against 19.2 billion euros in September, amid expectations for exports to decline more than imports in October.

Up to the disclosure of the Sentix index of consumer confidence for the euro area as a whole, which shows the widening contraction to 5.4 versus 4.5 in November, otherwise, the market looks to next Thursday the activities of the European Central Bank meeting, which is expected to be approved by manufacturers The monetary policy of the European Central Bank to keep interest rates at their current zero levels.

And with the fixing of the marginal lending rate at 0.25%, in addition to maintaining the interest rate on negative deposits -0.40% and moving forward with the quantitative easing program at 20 billion Euros per month as long as necessary, and this comes before we also witness Thursday the press conference of the European Central Bank governorate Christine Lagarde, who is her first press conference after she took over from former governor Mario Draghi early last month.

On the other hand, the markets are looking for tomorrow, Tuesday, for the launching of the activities of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting to be held tomorrow and the day after tomorrow Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to remain on the short-term benchmark interest rates for the second consecutive meeting at between 1.75% and 2.00% simultaneously. With the disclosure of the expectations of members of the Committee to the rates of growth, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future interest rates for the next three years.

Up to the press conference to be held by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell on Wednesday, exactly half an hour after the end of the FOMC’s meeting to comment on the decisions of the Fed’s monetary policy makers, which has recently witnessed widespread criticism by US President Donald Trump who is calling on the Federal Reserve and his Powell Governor to go Move ahead to cut federal funds interest "to zero or less."

Technical analysis

The euro against the dollar traded steady below the level of 1.1065, to face the price of more expected negative pressure during the coming period, on the way to achieving negative goals that start at 1.0995 then 1.0950.

Therefore, a bearish bias will be favored for today, supported by moving below SMA 50, taking into consideration that breaching 1.1108 will stop the expected decline and lead the price to recover again.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0950 support and 1.1120 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bearish.