Gold analysis 05.12.2019

Gold price futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to the upside during the Asian session to witness its bounce for the fourth session in seven sessions from the lowest since 12 November, when it tested the lowest since 2 August, with the US dollar index rebounding for the fifth session on The consecutive top of it since October 15, according to the inverse relationship between them on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today by the US economy and amid market pricing of developments in the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

At exactly 04:24 AM GMT, gold price futures for February delivery rose 0.07% to trade at $ 1,481.10 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,481.00 per ounce, knowing that the contracts started the session’s trading on a falling price gap after yesterday’s trading was concluded At $ 1,480.20 an ounce, with the US dollar index down 0.03% to 97.56 compared to the opening at 97.59.

Investors are currently looking for the US economy to issue a reading of the subsidy requests index for the last week at the end of last month, which may reflect an increase by two thousand requests to 215 thousand requests compared to 213 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of subsidy requests investors for the past week at 23 From last month, an increase of 20 thousand requests to 1,660 thousand requests compared to 1,640 thousand requests.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance Index reading, which may reflect a narrowing of the deficit to $ 48.7 billion compared to $ 52.5 billion in September, and before the disclosure of the factory orders reading, which may show a 0.3% rise compared to a 0.6% decline in September, Up to the Federal Reserve Deputy Governor and member of the Federal Commission Randall Quarles testified about supervision and regulation before the Senate Banking Committee.

In view of the developments of the trade war between the United States and China, we followed yesterday the report of the Bromberg News Agency, which touched on the imminent conclusion of Washington and Beijing on an agreement regarding the volume of customs duties that will be revoked in what is known as the first trade agreement, according to informed sources reported by Bloomberg, and in the same context, US President Donald Trump also noted yesterday that trade talks with China are going well.

The developments came hours after Trump last Tuesday expressed his preference in one way or another to postpone the conclusion of a trade deal with China until after the 2020 presidential elections, while stating that Beijing wants to conclude a deal at the moment with Washington and that "we will see if the deal will be correct or not." "And markets are currently awaiting the decision of Washington by the 15th of this month whether or not to activate the 15% increase in customs duties on Chinese goods valued at $ 160 billion."

In another context, US President Trump also threatened France last Tuesday to impose 100% tariffs on goods it supplies to his country estimated at $ 2.4 billion to pressure Paris to back down from its intention to impose a new digital services tax that will harm technology companies, especially American, which was denounced by France and the Commission European Union and that in the case of imposing new tariffs, the European Union and France are ready to respond.

Technical analysis

Gold price trades around 1475.00 level since yesterday, and the price needs to get a negative incentive to support the chances of resuming the expected bearish direction for the coming period, which depends on stability below 1489.00 level.

Our negative targets start with testing the 1447.00 level, noting that breaching this level will push the price to 1413.10 as a next station, while a break of 1489.00 represents the key to stop the current bearish correction and restore the main bullish direction.

The expected trading range for today is between 1455.00 support and 1490.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Overall fall.