AUD analysis 05.12.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted towards the decline during the Asian session, to witness its bounce to the third session from the top since November 11 against the US dollar after the developments and economic data that it had reported on the Australian economy and on the cusp of developments and economic data expected today Thursday from the economy US which includes the second half of the testimony of the Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve and member of the Federal Open Market Committee Randall Quarles before the US Congress in Washington.

At exactly 02:56 AM GMT, the Australian dollar pair fell against the US dollar by 0.10% to 0.6842 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6849, after the pair achieved its lowest during the trading session at 0.6833, while achieving the highest at 0.6855.

We have followed on from the Australian economy the release of the retail sales index, which reflected the stability at zero levels against 0.2% growth last September, contrary to the expectations that indicated the acceleration of growth to 0.3%, and this came in conjunction with the release of the trade balance reading, which showed a shrinking surplus to A value of A $ 4.50 billion compared to A $ 7.18 billion in September, also worse than forecast at A $ 6.50 billion.

On the other hand, investors from the US economy are awaiting the release of the index of subsidy requests for the past week at the end of last month, which may reflect an increase by two thousand requests to 215 thousand requests compared to 213 thousand requests in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of subsidy requests investors for the past week On the 23rd of last month, an increase of 20 thousand requests to 1,660 thousand requests compared to 1,640 thousand requests.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance Index reading, which may reflect a narrowing of the deficit to $ 48.7 billion compared to $ 52.5 billion in September, and before the disclosure of the factory orders reading, which may show a 0.3% rise compared to a 0.6% decline in September, Up to the Federal Reserve Deputy Governor and member of the Federal Commission Randall Quarles testified about supervision and regulation before the Senate Banking Committee.

Technical analysis

The Australian dollar versus the US dollar trades stable above the EMA50, and continues to move within the ascending channel, and therefore, there is no change to the upside scenario that mainly targets the areas of 0.7015, noting the importance of holding above 0.6755 to continue.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6800 support and 0.6900 resistance.

Expected trend for today: bullish.