AUD analysis 02.12.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session to witness the rebound of the second session of the lowest since October 17 last against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday before the US economy The largest economy in the world.

At 02:04 AM GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.15% to 0.6773 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6764, after the pair achieved the highest during the trading session at 0.6774, while the pair achieved the lowest at 0.6756.

The Australian Manufacturing Index was released by the Australian Industrial Group (AIG) which showed a contraction to 48.1 vs. 51.6 in October, before we saw the release of the inflation index by the Melbourne Institute (MI). ), Which showed steadyness at zero versus 0.1% growth in October.

In addition to the disclosure of the operating profit index of companies, which showed a decline of 8.1% against a rise of 4.8%, which was revised from a rise of 4.5% in the second quarter of last year, contrary to expectations that slow the pace of growth to 1.0%, and this coincided with the release of preliminary labor market data Aussie with the release of the jobs announcement showed that the decline widened to 1.7% versus a rise of 1.0% in October.

We also followed the release of Australian housing market data with the release of Building Permits which showed a decline of 8.1% versus a rise of 7.2% last September, worse than expectations for a decline of 1.0%, while the annual reading of the same index showed a decline to 23.6 % Vs. 17.0% in the prior yearly reading for September, also worse than expectations for a widening decline to 18.0%.

On Tuesday, markets are looking ahead to RBA policymakers' decisions as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate statement is set to be held for the second consecutive meeting after being cut this year by 25bp three times to 0.75%. On Wednesday, we will see the release of the third quarter growth data which may reflect the steady growth of 0.5%.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal the final reading of the manufacturing PMI by Markit from the US which may reflect the stability of the expansion at 52.2, little changed from the initial reading of last month and against 51.3 in October. Before we saw the release of the Construction Spending reading, which reflects a slowdown in growth to 0.3% vs. 0.5% in September.

This comes in conjunction with the revelation by the world's largest industrialized countries that the ISM reading could show contraction shrinking to 49.2 vs. 48.3 in October. Its value was 47.0 versus 45.5 in October.

Technical Analysis

The narrow range continues to dominate the AUDUSD trading, which stabilizes below SMA 50, keeping the bearish scenario intact for the upcoming period, unchanged, awaiting to visit 0.6725 then 0.6670 mainly, while recalling the importance of stability below 0.6840 to continue the decline. Expected.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6720 support and 0.6800 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.