Gold Analysis 26.11.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the lowest since November 12, when it tested the lowest since August 2, ignoring the rebound of the US dollar index for the second session of its highest since 14 of this month According to the inverse relationship between them following the speech of the Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Tuesday by the US economy and in the shadow of market pricing opportunities to resolve trade disputes between Washington and Beijing.

At 04:04 AM GMT gold futures for February delivery fell 0.01% to trade at $ 1,461.20 an ounce compared with the opening at $ 1,461.30 an ounce, knowing that the contracts started the trading session on a falling price gap after yesterday's trading ended At $ 1,463.80 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.04% to 98.29 compared to the opening at 98.33.

We have just followed Fed Governor Jerome Powell's speech “Building on the Gains from Long Expansion” at the Providence Chamber of Commerce annual meeting in Rhode Island. It may reflect a rise of 0.2% versus a decline of 0.4% last September.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance of Goods, which may show the widening deficit to $ 71.3 billion versus $ 70.4 billion in September, and before the release of US housing market data with the release of the house price index, which may show accelerated growth to 0.5% vs. The S&P House Price Index showed annual growth accelerated to 2.1% in August from 2.0% in August.

Concerning the release of the Consumer Confidence reading, which may show an expansion to 126.9 vs. 125.9 last October, coinciding with the release of Richmond Industrial Index which may reflect a decline in the expansion to 6 vs. 8 in October, With the release of the New Home Sales, which may show a 1.0% rise to 708K versus a 0.7% decline at 701K in September.

Later in the day, investors were also awaiting FOMC member and Fed Governor Lyle Brennard's speech on a review of the Fed's monetary policy strategy framework as well as tools and communication at the New York Business Economics Association Awards in New York.

Otherwise, given the developments in the US-China trade war, we followed up on Saturday by US National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien that a trade agreement with China could be reached by the end of this year, and investors are looking at whether Washington will do its tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 156 billion by December 15 will either freeze its decision until further notice.

US National Security Adviser O'Brien warned that his country would not turn a blind eye to what is happening in Hong Kong. In contrast, in the latest move by China to ease trade tensions, Beijing announced last weekend that Sanctions on intellectual property violations will be lifted. US President Donald Trump said Friday he was "very close" to the trade deal.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold introduced new negative trading yesterday to approach our awaited target at 1447.00, which represents the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rise measured from 1269.50 to 1556.68, which means that breaking this level will push the price to visit the next correction level at 1413.10.

SMA 50 continues to pressure the price negatively, supporting the chances of continuation of the bearish bias, breaking the above mentioned level and achieving further declines during the coming sessions, thus, we will continue to favor the bearishness over intraday and short term unless it breached 1489.00 level and holds a daily close above it.

Expected trading range for today is between 1440.00 support and 1465.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.