AUD Analysis 26.11.2019

The Aussie fluctuated in a narrow, bearish range during the Asian session, bouncing back to its 14th session in 19 sessions from its highest since July 26 against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of Australia's assistant governor, Governor of the Risk Management Committee Jay Debell, and bank governor talk Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on the eve of RBA Governor Philip Lowe's recent economic developments and data on Tuesday by the world's largest economy.

At 03:11 AM GMT, the AUDUSD retreated 0.03% to 0.6777 levels, compared to the opening levels of 0.6779, after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 0.6772, while achieving the highest at 0.6786.

The RBA Assistant Governor, in charge of the Risk Management Committee, Jay Debell, delivered a speech titled “Employment and Wages” at the Australian Council of Social Service in Canberra, amid expectations that RBA Governor Philip Lowe will also address “ Unconventional Monetary Policy: Some Lessons from Abroad "at the annual dinner for Australian business economists in Sydney.

On the other hand, we have just followed the speech by Fed Governor Jerome Powell, titled “Building on the Gains from Long Expansion” at the Providence Chamber of Commerce annual meeting in Rhode Island. Wholesale inventories may reflect a rise of 0.2% versus a decline of 0.4% last September.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance of Goods, which may show the widening deficit to $ 71.3 billion versus $ 70.4 billion in September, and before the release of US housing market data with the release of the house price index, which may show accelerated growth to 0.5% vs. The S&P House Price Index showed annual growth accelerated to 2.1% in August from 2.0% in August.

Concerning the release of the Consumer Confidence reading, which may show an expansion to 126.9 vs. 125.9 last October, coinciding with the release of Richmond Industrial Index which may reflect a decline in the expansion to 6 vs. 8 in October, With the release of the New Home Sales, which may show a 1.0% rise to 708K versus a 0.7% decline at 701K in September.

Later in the day, investors were also awaiting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member and Fed Governor Lyle Brainard to review the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework as well as the tools and communication at the New York Business Economics Awards in New York. For the time being the developments of the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has been able to break the support shown on the chart and stabilize below it, supporting our continuation of the bearish outlook, and the path is open to achieving our negative targets starting at 0.6725 then 0.6670.

Therefore, we will continue to favor the bearish bias during the upcoming sessions unless breaching 0.6840 and holding above it.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6720 support and 0.6820 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.