AUD Analysis 19.11.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to decline during the Asian session to witness the rebound to the tenth session in fourteen sessions from the highest since July 26 last July against the US dollar after the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday from Ahead of the US economy which includes the speech of the FOMC member and New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams in Washington.

At 02:38 am GMT, AUDUSD fell 0.28% to 0.6792 levels, compared with opening levels at 0.6811, after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 0.6785, while the highest level at 0.6815.

We followed the participation of the RBA Assistant Governor on Financial Markets Christopher Kent in a panel discussion entitled “Regulatory Update on Valuation” at the Australian Securitization Forum in Sydney. Current short-term benchmark interest rates were set at an all-time low of 0.75%.

We would like to point out that the RBA monetary policy makers expressed their willingness to further ease monetary policy if needed and that interest rates could have been lowered during this meeting, but they have assessed their rate cut three times earlier. This year and adopt a more appropriate approach to short-term benchmark interest rates.

The minutes also touched on the fact that members of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) started their discussions at the meeting with the developments in the global economy and highlighted the signs of slowing growth of Australia's main trading partners recently due to the decline in investment and trade and that recent indicators indicate that this weakness is spreading to the sector. SOA in some of those countries.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy to release housing market data with the release of both housing starts and building permits and amid expectations that building permits will decline to 0.8% to about 1,381 thousand permits versus 2.7% at 1,387 thousand in September. September, while the start of construction may reflect a rise of 4.9% to about 1,318 thousand homes compared to a decline of 9.4% at 1,256 thousand homes.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and New York Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams spoke at the Capital Markets Conference sponsored by the Securities and Financial Markets Industry Association in Washington, DC, hours after US President Donald Trump met with the Federal Reserve Governor. Jerome Powell at the White House in an unplanned meeting.

Earlier this week, US President Trump invited Powell to discuss the state of the domestic economy, particularly the pace of growth and inflation, as well as employment rates. The meeting included US Treasury Secretary Stephen Menushin, and Trump said the meeting was very good. Several topics were discussed including interest rates, negative interest rates and inflation.

President Trump also said that he also discussed during his meeting with Powell Governor Powell and Treasury Secretary Minouchn his country's trade relations with China as well as the strength of the US dollar and the impact on the industrial sector of the world's largest industrialized country, unlike many other issues and comments. Powell on the meeting is consistent with his recent testimony before Congress and did not address the expectations of monetary policy.

In the same vein, Fed Governor Powell reaffirmed that the course of monetary policy depends primarily on economic data and that members of the Federal Open Market Committee approve monetary policy as required by law to support maximum employment and price stability and that they rely in their decisions on careful analysis Objective, not political.

Last week, Powell noted the Fed's semi-annual testimony to Congress that his economy is in good shape, growth is moderate and the labor market is strong and he does not expect a looming economic catastrophe. This year, he said, adding that members of the Federal Reserve are currently assessing three rate cuts recently and their impact on the economy.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD continues to fluctuate around 0.6800 and stabilizes below it, as long as the price is below 0.6840, our bearish outlook will remain intact, supported by moving below SMA 50, reminding that our awaited targets start at 0.6725 and extend to 0.6670.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6750 support and 0.6840 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.