EUR Analysis 14.11.2019

The single currency fluctuated in a narrow range against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by Eurozone and US economies including Fed Governor Jerome Powell's testimony. In front of Congress in Washington and many members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 05:26 AM GMT the EURUSD fell 0.09% to 1.0997 levels from the opening levels of 1.1007, after hitting a one-month low of 1.0995, while hitting a session high of 1.1011.

Markets are currently awaiting the euro zone's largest economy, Germany, to reveal the seasonally adjusted preliminary Q3 GDP reading, which may reflect a stable contraction of 0.1%, unchanged from the second quarter, while the seasonally adjusted annual reading of the index itself may show growth. 0.8% vs. steady at zero levels in the annual reading prior to the second quarter.

This comes before we have seen before the second largest economy of the euro zone France to reveal the final CPI reading which may reflect the stability of the contraction at 0.1%, little changed from the initial reading for the month of September and against the contraction of 0.3% in August, before We are seeing the preliminary reading of the employment change for the euro area as a whole which could show a stable growth of 0.2% in the third quarter.

The release of the seasonally adjusted initial reading of the Eurozone GDP as a whole could reflect a stable growth of 0.2%, unchanged from the previous reading of the second quarter.

On the other hand, investors are looking forward to the speech of Fed Vice Governor and Federal Open Market Committee member Randall Corrales via the opening speech at the annual conference of the International Association of Insurance Supervisors in Abu Dhabi, before we see the release of the producer price index, which is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures. That may reflect 0.3% growth versus a 0.3% contraction in September.

The core PPI reading also shows a 0.2% growth versus a contraction of 0.3%, coinciding with the release of the jobless claims for the week ending on the 9th of this month, which may reflect an increase of 4 thousand applications to 215 thousand applications, while the reading may show Continued for the week ended on the second of this month, a decrease of 4 thousand applications to 1,685 thousand applications.

This comes before the Federal Reserve Deputy Governor and Federal Open Market Committee member Richard Clarda talked about monetary policy strategy, tools, and communication practices at the Cato Institute annual monetary conference in Washington, before Chicago Fed Chairman Charles Evans and committee member Federalism at the annual Ventec conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell is expected to testify in the second half of his monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday after he made the first half of his policy testimony before the Services Committee. Finance in the House.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a member of the Federal Open Market Committee will also deliver the opening speech at the Economic Policy Conference in Asia, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, before witnessing the speech of St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman and Federal Reserve Board member James Pollard. About monetary policy at the Rotary Club in Louisville.

Technical Analysis

EUR / USD is trading near the 1.0995 level, and we are still waiting for a further decline due to the already completed double top pattern, where our next target is at 1.0950.

Therefore, the bearish bias remains likely in the coming sessions unless 1.1065 is breached and stability above it, noting that SMA 50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0920 support and 1.1065 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bearish