Gold Analysis 11.11.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range, bouncing back to the second session of the lowest since August 5 with the negative index of the dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them after the strikes in Hong Kong and following the developments and economic data that followed from the Chinese economy The largest metal consumer in the world amid the lack of economic data this weekend by the US economy, the largest economy in the world due to the Veterans Day holiday in the United States.

At 04:38 am GMT gold prices rose 0.21% to trade at $ 1,462.85 an ounce compared with the opening at $ 1,460.06 an ounce, with the dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.34 compared to the opening at 98.37.

Over the weekend, we watched the escalation of political unrest in Hong Kong, which, according to a recent news report, resulted in the injury of at least two protesters in Medea as local police opened fire on mass demonstrations there. Pro-democracy legislators.

On the other hand, last Saturday, the Chinese economy followed the release of inflation data which showed mixed inflationary pressures with the annual CPI reading accelerating to 3.8% vs. 3.0% in September, beating expectations of 3.2%, while the annual reading of the CPI showed Producer prices, which is a preliminary indicator of inflation, deflation widened to 1.6% vs. 1.2%, worse than expectations of 1.5%.

On the other hand, we also followed on Saturday US President Donald Trump expressed the fact that trade talks with China are going "very well" and that Beijing wants to conclude a trade deal "much more than me", and the comments came to be more optimistic about his recent statements, when he denied Last Friday, the White House agreed to abolish existing tariffs, saying Washington would not agree to a full retreat from tariffs on Chinese goods.

Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Feng Noh said last Thursday that Beijing and Washington agreed to eliminate some tariffs based on each other's goods at the same time, pointing out that both sides are closer to "the first phase of the trade agreement after constructive negotiations over the past two weeks." According to Chinese state media at the time.

A US official also confirmed that the United States and China had agreed to abolish tariffs, adding that the planned plan faces fierce domestic opposition in the White House, according to a Reuters report, hours after the report last week touched on a delay. Preliminary US-China trade agreement signed next month.

We should note that some of the report recently addressed the fact that the upcoming meeting between US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to sign an interim trade agreement may be postponed to December amid US and Chinese discussion of the terms of the agreement and where the two presidents will gather, knowing that Among the various proposals are their meeting to sign the agreement after the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to be held early next month.

Investors are looking ahead to the outcome of the FOMC member and chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Eric Rosengren at the Norwegian central bank in Oslo, hours before the start of the semi-annual testimony of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell before the US Congress in Washington. .

Markets are looking ahead Wednesday to the first half of the Fed's semi-annual policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, before Powell will deliver the second half of his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee next Thursday. Federal funds rate of 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting at its last meeting.

At a press conference late last month following the October 29-30 FOMC meeting in Washington, Powell noted that the Federal Reserve would temporarily stop adjusting monetary policy until the end of the year. Unless expectations change substantially in the coming period.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold stabilizes around 1460.00 after the strong decline witnessed last Friday, and the bearish trend is still likely supported by the moving average 50, which negatively pressures the price, waiting to test the level of 1447.00, which is our first major target, noting that breaking this level will push the price to 1413.10 as the next target.

Therefore, we expect further declines today, considering that the continuation of the bearish wave depends on stability below 1489.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 1440.00 support and 1475.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish