Gold Analysis 08.11.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow upward range to witness the bounce for the second session of the lowest since August 5, ignoring the rebound of the dollar index for the sixth session of the lowest since the ninth of the same month according to the inverse relationship between them after the developments and economic data that followed China's economy is the world's largest consumer of metals, on the threshold of economic developments and data expected on Friday by the US economy and in the shadow of market pricing of trade developments between Washington and Beijing.

Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.1% to trade at $ 1,470.10 an ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,468.13 an ounce, shrugging off the dollar index 0.01% to 98.15 compared to the opening at 98.14.

China's General Administration of Customs (CGAC) released the Trade Balance Index, which showed the surplus widened to 301 billion yuan ($ 42.8 billion) from 275 billion yuan ($ 39.7 billion) in September. The forecast showed that the surplus widened to 287 billion yuan ($ 40.6 billion), with exports and imports shrinking more than expected last month.

On the other hand, investors are looking forward to the outcome of the FOMC member and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, John Williams, about the weaknesses in the global financial system during a dinner in New York, and that comes before we see another Fed committee member, the Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve. Concluding Remarks of the San Francisco Fed Research Conference.

Investors are also awaiting the US economy's final wholesale inventories figure, which could show a 0.3% decline, unchanged from the preliminary September reading and a 0.2% rise in August, coinciding with the release of the University of Michigan's preliminary reading of confidence. Consumers may reflect an expansion to 96.0 vs. 95.5 last October.

On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said that Beijing and Washington agreed to eliminate tariffs on each other's goods at the same time. According to Chinese state media, constructive negotiations have taken place over the past two weeks.

A US official also confirmed that both the United States and China had agreed to abolish tariffs, adding that the planned plan faces fierce domestic opposition in the White House, according to a Reuters report, hours after the report touched on Tuesday to postpone. Preliminary US-China trade agreement signed next month.

It is noteworthy that some of the report recently touched on the fact that the upcoming meeting between US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to sign an interim trade agreement, may be postponed to December amid the US and China discussion of the terms of the agreement and where the two presidents will gather, knowing that Among the various proposals are their meeting to sign the agreement after the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization scheduled for early next month.

Technical Analysis

Gold is trading strongly negative to move away from the level of 1489.00, which supports the continuation of our expectations for a bearish trend in the intraday and short term, and the way is open to achieve our first target expected at 1447.00, noting that breaking this level will push the price to 1413.10 as the next corrective target.

Therefore, the negative scenario will remain dominant during the coming sessions unless the price pushes to breach the 1489.00 level and hold above it.

Expected trading range for today is between 1447.00 support and 1480.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.