Gold Analysis 29.10.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the rebound for the third consecutive session from the highest since October 10 amid the positive stability of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday before The US economy, which includes the start of the FOMC meeting, in the shadow of optimism about the chances of reaching a trade agreement between Washington and Beijing and following the extension of the Brexit deadline.

At 03:24 am GMT, gold futures for December delivery fell 0.4% to trade at $ 1,491.50 an ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,491.90 an ounce, with the US dollar index up 0.03% to 97.78 compared to the opening at 97.75.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy to release the housing market data with the release of the annual S&P House Price Index which may show growth accelerated to 2.1% from 2.0% in July, before we see the release of existing home sales. It may show a slowdown in growth to 0.9% versus 1.6% last August.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the consumer confidence index, which may show an expansion to 128.2 vs. 125.1 last September, leading to the start of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington, which is expected to cut interest rates on federal funds by 25 points The basis for the third consecutive meeting is between 1.50% and 1.75%.

In the same context, the markets are looking forward on Wednesday after the end of the second day of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee about half an hour of the upcoming press conference of the Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, which will present the decisions and directions of the Federal Reserve Committee, before opening the field for media questions. At the same time, US President Donald Trump has called for further stimulus and interest rate cuts.

Powell has already noted that the risks to the US economy are the uncertainty over the US-China trade war and the Brexit dossier. Trump yesterday expressed his expectation of a trade deal with China at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. APEC next month in Chile, as well as Brussels' agreement yesterday to extend the Brexit until January 31, limits the chances of a rate cut at the Fed meeting.

Otherwise, investors are also looking ahead tomorrow to reveal the preliminary GDP reading for the US for the third quarter, which may show a slower pace of growth for the world's largest economy to 1.6% vs. 2.0% in the second quarter, and may reflect the preliminary reading of GDP measured in prices For the last quarter, growth slowed to 1.8% from 2.4% in the second quarter.

On Wednesday, the US labor market is set to release preliminary data, with the release of the private sector employment change, which may reflect a slower pace of job creation to 125,000 jobs versus 135,000 in September, hours before the release. On the monthly report on non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates plus hourly earnings for October.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold stabilizes at the pivotal support of 1489.00, and the price maintains its stability above it so far, accompanied by the emergence of clear signs of saturation in selling through the stochastic indicator, waiting to stimulate the price to resume the expected bullish trend for the next period, which initially targets 1535.00.

Keep in mind that breaching 1489.00 and holding below it will stop the positive scenario and press the price to return to the bearish corrective path again.

Expected trading range for today is between 1480.00 support and 1510.00 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bullish