Gold Analysis 16.10.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range upward during the Asian session amid the negative stability of the US dollar index, indicating its rebound for the eighth session in the twelve sessions from its highest since May 12, 2017 The US economy is the largest economy in the world, which includes members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 04:34 am GMT gold prices fell 0.20% to trade at $ 1,497.50 an ounce compared with the opening at $ 1,481.04 an ounce, amid the US dollar index fell 0.01% to 98.30 compared to the opening at 98.31.

Investors in the US economy are looking to unveil retail sales, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which may reflect a slowing pace of growth to 0.3% from 0.4% last August. The core index itself grew 0.2% against steady at zero levels in August.

This comes before we see the FOMC and Chicago Fed Governor Charles Evans talk about the current economic conditions and monetary policy at the Greater Peoria Development Board in Illinois, and before the release of the US housing market data with the housing index read by the National Association of Builders. Houses which may reflect stability at 68 during October.

Markets are also looking to the Wholesale Inventories figure, which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.3% from 0.4% in July, before we see the release of the Beige Book report, which is important two weeks before the FOMC meeting. One of the cornerstones on which the Fed's monetary policy makers build their decisions is to support and stimulate the US economy.

The upcoming FOMC meeting is scheduled to be held in Washington on October 29-30, and investors are also expected to speak later today to FOMC member and Fed Governor Lyle Brainard on developments in the region. Digital currency and policy implications at the event hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

On the other hand, given the tensions between the United States and China, we have followed China's threat of retaliation if the US Congress passes a bill providing support for pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong. The US House of Representatives is considering legislation requiring an annual review of whether the city enjoys independence. Sufficient from Beijing to assess its own trade status under US law.

On Tuesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the US statement on the partial agreement between the two parties is true and that there is no dispute between Beijing and Washington on reaching a trade agreement between them, and the Chinese media also touched yesterday that the two parties agreed on the need to resolve trade disputes between them. Through negotiations and joint negotiations between the two largest economists in the world.

Earlier this week, US Treasury Secretary Stephen Munchen noted that both China and China had made "significant progress" in the high-level trade negotiations held last Thursday and Friday in Washington, adding that he expected US President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping The agreement will be finalized at a summit in Chile next month, he said, adding that if a partial agreement is not reached in the coming period, tariffs on Chinese goods will be lifted by mid-December.

This came after President Trump announced that the US and China had agreed on the outline of a deal that could be signed early next month. It is noteworthy that the recent trade talks between the two sides resulted in a trade agreement "phase one" as part of an expanded trade agreement. Washington will not do its decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods worth 250 billion to 30 percent from 25 percent by the middle of this month.

On the other hand, Beijing is expected to make purchases of expanded US agricultural products and take steps to protect intellectual property protection and financial services as well as not weaken the Chinese yuan in order to gain a competitive trade advantage. While the freeze on the decision to raise tariffs and the commitment to expand the purchase of agricultural products were not mentioned at the time.

Otherwise, markets may look closely at developments in the Brexit dossier, particularly following the report, which boosted investor hopes for a draft deal that could reach an orderly Brexit deal by the end of this month, weighing more or less on yesterday's trading. On the performance of gold futures which is a safe haven and alternative to investment.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold broke the 1485.00 level and closed the daily candle below it, to activate the bearish scenario on the intraday and short term, on its way to achieve negative corrective targets starting at 1447.00 and extending to 1413.10.

Therefore, we are waiting for negative trading over the coming sessions supported by SMA 50, taking into consideration that breaching 1485.00 and consolidating above it will stop the negative scenario and may push the price to test 1510.00 zones before determining its next destination more accurately.

Expected trading range for today is between 1465.00 support and 1500.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.