AUD Analysis 15.10.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow uptrend range during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the sixth session in ten sessions from the lowest since March 18, 2009 against the US dollar following the release of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting and on the threshold of the expected speech later today Tuesday for members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 02:24 AM GMT, the AUDUSD rose 0.15% to 0.6785 levels, compared to the opening levels of 0.6775, after the pair reached its highest level during the session at 0.6789, while the lowest level at 0.6765.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unveiled the minutes of its meeting in early October, during which RBA monetary policy makers decided to resume short-term interest rates by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 0.75%. Following its confirmation at the previous meeting of that meeting and following a reduction of 25 basis points twice earlier this year.

We would like to point out that the RBA monetary policy makers expressed through the minutes that they are prepared to relax monetary policy more broadly if they are prepared to support growth and employment rates, and that it makes sense to expect them to need an extended period of low interest rates, amid reports that they have noticed To cut interest rates globally, explaining that they discussed the chances that the rate cut might have less impact than it was before.

Monetary policy makers also noted through the minutes that the purpose of the rate cut at a meeting earlier this month is to strengthen the starting point of the economy, explaining that the recent economic data revealed that the balance was on the softer side, with the statement that they discussed the issue of staying on Interest rates are low in emergencies and low interest rates are best to minimize the effects of any adverse shock.

On the other hand, investors await the FOMC members, Kansas City Federal Reserve Chairman Esther George, who will talk about US payment systems at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, before witnessing the dumping of St. Louis Fed President James. Bullard concludes the title of 'Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Option' at the 2019 Monetary and Financial Policy Conference in London.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD is fluctuating near SMA 50 and remains below it, while the Stochastic is floating in overbought areas, therefore, our bearish outlook will remain valid for the coming period, based on stability below 0.6825, noting that we are waiting to visit our levels. 0.6700 and then 0.6595 as the next major targets.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6700 support and 0.6830 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bearish