Gold Analysis 11.10.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow uptrend range during the Asian session to see the resumption of the rebound from the lowest since August 4 last amid the successive rebound of the US dollar index for the sixth session in nine sessions from the highest since May 12, 2017 According to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Friday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world and amid the realities of trade talks between the United States and China in Washington.

At 04:54 AM GMT gold futures for December delivery rose 0.60% to trade at $ 1,499.50 an ounce compared with the opening at $ 1,494.46 an ounce, with the US dollar index down 0.06% to 98.65 compared to the opening at 98.70.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy, which is expected to show a 0.5% decline versus a 0.2% rise in August, while an annual reading of the same index may show a decline to 2.0% versus 1.8%, before we see the release. The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer confidence may reflect an expansion to 90.4 from 89.9 in September.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and Boston Fed Chairman Eric Rosengren talked about monetary policy and interest rates at the US Economic Challenges in Madison, hours after Fed Governor Jerome Powell said the US economy was doing well. He faces some risks and the Fed's strategy and tools are still very effective.

In the same context, we followed on Wednesday the disclosure of the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on September 17-18, which touched on the decision to cut interest rates on federal funds for the second time in a row by 25 basis points to between 1.75% and 2.00%. The Fed's forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment as well as the future of interest rates for the next three years.

On the other hand, investors' attention is focused on the realities of the high-level trade talks between the US and China in Washington, which started yesterday and is completed today in efforts to resolve the trade disputes between the two sides and amid the hopes of the talks that result in a trade truce to prevent the escalation of the war. Business that has passed its first year.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump said he would meet Friday with China's top commissioner, Vice Premier Liu Hu, allowing cautious optimism in the markets about a deal or truce and the US administration's decision to raise its tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion. To 30% from 25% by 15th of this month and impose 15% tariffs on goods worth $ 160 billion on December 15th.

Technical Analysis

Gold is trading below the 1500.00 barrier, and the price is under negative pressure from SMA 50, while Stochastic is showing positive signs that may protect the price from further declines.

Therefore, this inconsistency between technical factors keeps us neutral until we get a clearer signal for the next trend, which we will get by breaching the resistance 1518.00 or breaking the support 1485.00, noting that breaking this support will reactivate the bearish corrective scenario whose next target exists. At 1447.00, while breaching the resistance will lead the price to resume the major uptrend with its next target at 1555.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 1475.00 support and 1520.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.