Gold Analysis 10.10.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range upward during the Asian session to witness the recovery of the seventh session in eight sessions from the lowest since August 4 last, ignoring the rise of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday from The US economy has accepted the world's largest economy and the start of trade talks between the United States and China in Washington.

Gold futures for December delivery rose 0.01% to trade at $ 1507.23 an ounce compared with the opening at $ 1505.69 an ounce, knowing that gold achieved the highest price at $ 1516.70 an ounce, while the index rose US dollar 0.03% to 99.01 compared to the opening at 98.98

Investors are awaiting the US economy to release inflation data with the release of the CPI reading which may reflect a stable growth of 0.1%, little changed from August, while the core reading of the same index may show growth slowed to 0.2% vs. 0.3%, When the annual reading of the index may show acceleration of growth at 1.7% vs. 1.8%, and the core annual reading of the index may reflect the stability of growth at 2.4%.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the last week on October 5, which may reflect a decrease of 4 thousand applications to 215 thousand applications compared to 219 thousand tabs the previous weekly reading, while the reading of the claims application index may show investors for the past week in September 28 Stabilizes little changed from the previous weekly reading of 1,651 thousand applications.

On Wednesday, we followed the release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on September 17-18, which touched on the decision to cut the federal funds rate for the second time in a row by 25 basis points to between 1.75% and 2.00%. The Fed's forecasts for growth, inflation and unemployment as well as the future of interest rates for the next three years.

On the other hand, investors are eyeing the launch of a new round of high-level trade talks between the two largest economies in the world amid expectations to suspend the US administration's decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion to 30% from 25% by 15 of this month and impose tariffs 15% on Chinese goods worth $ 160 billion on December 15, in exchange for an agreement on the exchange rate.

Earlier this week, China confirmed that Vice Premier Liu Hu and Governor of the People's Bank of China Ye Gang would go to Washington for the October 10-11 talks, before we see some report on the fact that A high-level Chinese delegation will leave Washington today instead of Friday as planned.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold tested the pivotal resistance which is now falling to 1518.00 and bounced back from there, leaving the price confined between the pivotal levels of 1485.00 support and 1518.00 resistance, which makes us stay neutral until the price is able to breach one of the mentioned levels.

Recall that breaching the mentioned resistance will lead the price to regain the main bullish trend, where the first target is located at 1555.00, while breaking the support will put the price under the corrective downside pressure again, heading towards negative targets starting at 1447.00 and extending to 1413.10.

Expected trading range for today is between 1485.00 support and 1530.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.