EUR Analysis 10.10.2019

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow range upward during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the sixth session in eight sessions from the lowest since May 12, 2017 against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by euro zone economies The US economy is the largest in the world.

At 05:13 am GMT the EURUSD rose 0.14% to 1.0986 levels from the opening at 1.0971, the pair's lowest level during the session, while the pair reached its highest at 1.0993.

Markets in the euro zone's largest economy, Germany, are currently looking for a trade balance reading, which could reflect a narrowing surplus to EUR 19.4 billion from EUR 20.2 billion in July, before France's second-largest economy sees production coming out. Which may reflect slowing growth to 0.2% vs. 0.3% in July.

This comes before the third largest economy in the Eurozone is also due to release the industrial sector data with the release of the industrial production index which may show a rise of 0.2% versus a decline of 0.7% in July, leading up to the disclosure of the monetary policy meeting of the Central Bank. European held on 12 September last.

Last month, the European Central Bank's monetary policy makers decided to keep interest rates at their current zero levels and stabilize the marginal lending rate at 0.25% as the negative deposit interest rate deepened by 10 basis points to -0.50%. Quantity of 20 billion euros per month by November and the continuation of the program as long as necessary.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to release inflation data with the release of the CPI reading which may reflect the stability of growth at 0.1% unchanged from August, while the core reading of the same indicator may show growth slowed to 0.2% vs. 0.3% While the annualized reading of the index may show acceleration of growth at 1.7% vs. 1.8%, the core annual reading of the index may reflect the stability of growth at 2.4%.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the last week on October 5, which may reflect a decrease of 4 thousand applications to 215 thousand applications compared to 219 thousand tabs the previous weekly reading, while the reading of the claims application index may show investors for the past week in September 28 Stabilizes little changed from the previous weekly reading of 1,651 thousand applications.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair is now showing positive trades heading towards a possible test of the resistance of the descending channel, which drops to 1.1010, and as long as the price is below this level, our bearish outlook will remain valid for the coming period, mainly waiting for 1.0857.

Keep in mind that a breach of 1.1010 and holding above it will stop the negative scenario and lead the price for further gains up to 1.1180 before any new attempt to decline.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0890 support and 1.1050 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Overall bearish.