AUD Analysis 09.10.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the fourth session in six sessions from the lowest since March 18, 2009 against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Wednesday Ahead of the US economy which includes Fed Governor Jerome Powell's speech in Kansas City.

At 02:37 am GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.19% to 0.6741 levels, compared to the opening levels at 0.6728, after the pair achieved the highest during the session at 0.6742, while the lowest level at 0.6723.

The Australian WISPAC Consumer Confidence Index showed a decline of 5.5% to 92.8 vs. 1.7% at 98.2 in September. The business held steady at zero levels versus $ 1 last August.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy for the release of the employment and employment turnover, which may reflect a rise to 7.35 million versus 7.22 million in July, following hours of the US labor market data released last month that showed Friday the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since December 1969 to 3.5% compared to the previous reading and expectations of 3.7%.

In the same vein, we also followed last weekend's median hourly earnings steady at zero versus 0.4% growth in August, worse than expectations of 0.3%, while the non-farm payrolls showed a slowdown. The pace of job creation was 136k jobs compared to 168k jobs added in August, also worse than expectations for 145k jobs added.

Markets are also looking to unveil the final wholesale inventories figure, which could show growth stabilizing at 0.4%, little changed from the initial reading for August and 0.2% in July, before the participation of Fed Governor Jerome Powell and committee member. Federal Open Market and Kansas City Federal Reserve President Esther George at a panel discussion at the Federal Reserve listens.

The FOMC Meeting Minutes were released on September 17-18, in which the Federal Funds rate was cut for the second time in a row by 25 basis points to between 1.75% and 2.00%. It was in line with expectations, with the Commission's expectations for growth, inflation and unemployment as well as the future interest rates for the next three years revealed.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has not shown any strong movement in the past sessions, and we note that the Stochastic begins to cross negatively, waiting to contribute to push the price to trade negatively in the coming sessions, to keep the bearish trend scenario valid and effective for today, waiting to visit the level of 0.6595, with reminders Stability below 0.6840 is required for the continuation of the expected decline.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6680 support and 0.6780 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.