AUD Analysis 08.10.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow uptrend range during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the fourth session in five sessions from the lowest since March 18, 2009 against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed from the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday from Ahead of the US economy the largest in the world.

At 03:13 am GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.22% to 0.6748 levels, compared to the opening levels at 0.6733, after the pair achieved the highest during the trading session at 0.6749, while the lowest level at 0.6729.

The Australian economy followed the release of the Australian National Business Confidence Index, which showed steady at zero levels from 1 in August, while the reading of the same index of confidence in the current situation widened to 2 to 1 in August. /August. This comes just hours before the release of October's Wesbeck consumer confidence index.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal the PPI reading, which is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures, which may reflect the stability of growth at 0.1%, little changed from what it was in August, while the core reading of the index itself may show a slowdown. The pace of growth to 0.3% vs. 0.2%, as the annual reading of the same index may show the stability of growth at 1.8%.

In the same context, the core annual PPI reading may reflect a stable growth rate of 2.3%, little changed from the previous annual reading in August, before we see the FOMC member and Chicago Fed Chairman Charles. Evans at the Chicago Rotary Lunch.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell delivered a speech titled "A Look from the Federal Reserve" at the annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economics in Denver, hours after Powell expressed the importance of the Fed's independence away from politics, and before his participation tomorrow. In a panel discussion the Federal Reserve listens in Kansas City.

On Wednesday, markets are also looking to unveil the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on September 17-18, during which it approved a 25bp cut in federal funds for the second consecutive time to between 1.75% and 2.00%. This was in line with expectations, with the then disclosure of the Committee's expectations on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Fed Governor Powell noted at the end of last week's opening remarks at a Fed event in Washington that the US economy is good so far and that the Fed's task is to keep the economy as strong as possible. Approaching the target at two percent.

Powell also said last Friday that the US economy faces long-term challenges as it addresses the fact that low interest rates make it difficult to cut interest rates on federal funds in the event of a recession, adding that the Federal Reserve is currently looking at the efficiency of monetary policy tools currently available. There are two FOMC meetings left this year and the state of the economy will be discussed.

Technical analysis

AUDUSD is showing sideways and narrow range trading around 0.6750, therefore, no change to the bearish trend scenario based on stability below 0.6840, organized within the main descending channel shown, supported by the negative SMA 50 and Stochastic, noting that Our next target is at 0.6595.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6680 support and 0.6800 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.