EUR analysis 03.10.2019

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to decline during the Asian session to witness a rebound from the highest since September 26 last against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the euro zone economies and the US economy, which includes members of the Commission Federal Open Market.

At 05:07 AM GMT, EUR / USD fell 0.03% to 1.0956 levels from the opening at 1.0959, after the pair reached a session low of 1.0955, while hitting a one-week high of 1.0965.

Markets are looking for Spain, the euro zone's fourth-largest economy, to release its services PMI, which may show a widening contraction to 53.9 from 54.3 in August, before seeing the same indicator for Italy, the region's third-largest economy, which may reflect The breadth also shrank to 50.4 from 50.6 in August.

Investors are also waiting for France, the second largest economy in the euro zone to reveal the final reading of the services PMI, which may show the stability of the expansion at 51.6 unchanged from the initial reading of last month, compared to 53.4 in August, before the final reading of the same indicator for Germany The economies of the region may also show a steady expansion of 52.5, little changed from the previous initial reading, versus 54.8.

The final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI may show the broadening stability at 52.0, unchanged from the previous initial reading, versus 53.5 in August, and before we also see the region's economy as a whole the retail sales figure which It may show a 0.4% decline versus a 0.2% rise in July.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the euro zone economies as a whole of inflation data with the release of the PPI reading, which is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures that may show 0.3% growth versus a 0.6% contraction in July. The EU will reach an agreement on Brexit and that the EU will discuss any new proposals from Britain.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the outcome of Chicago Fed President Charles Evans' speech on the monetary policy of the central banking chain of the Global Accreditation Center in Madrid, before we witness the speech of Fed Governor Randall Quarles. Financial Stability Board in 10 years "at the European Banking Summit in Brussels.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the US claims for the past week on September 28, which may reflect an increase of 2,000 applications to 215 thousand applications compared to 213 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims applications for investors for the past week on 21 From last month, an increase of 4 thousand applications to 1,654 thousand applications against 1,650 thousand applications.

The US Markit Services PMI final reading from the US may reflect a steady expansion at 50.9, little changed from the initial reading for September and 50.7 in August, before the ISM reading was released. Expansion may show contraction to 55.1 versus 56.4 in August.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Wednesday issued a ruling allowing the United States to impose duties on its imports from the European Union amounting to about $ 7.5 billion annually due to the European Union's illegal financial support to the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus. Customs on EU goods by 18 October.

Technical analysis

EUR / USD held steady at SMA 50 after yesterday's rise, accompanied by clear signs of overbought signs through Stochastic, which is a negative incentive that we expect to push the pair to resume the main bearish trend, with its next target at 1.0857.

Therefore, the overall bearish trend will remain valid for the coming period unless the price pushes to breach the 1.1035 level and hold above it.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0840 support and 1.1035 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.