Analysis of currency and stock markets 30.09.2019

GBPJPY Analysis

Analysis based on round-number levels, price channels and modified Elliot Waves

The Stochastic Oscillator indicator (30.10.10) signals oversoldness. The upper limit of the Ichimoku Cloud holds back sellers in the support level range 132.30. The breakthrough of the round secondary level 133.20 will give the formation of an upward wave structure within the H12 level wave (C).

Trading recommendations:

Buy above 133.20.

Stop Loss – 132.30.

Target levels – 135.50; 137.80.

When the target equal to the Stop order is reached, move the trade to break-even.

Trading ideas for PJSC “Sberbank”

The overall movement is upward. The stock trades between 365 and 150 moving averages. A reversal figure inverted Head and Shoulders is formed. The break of the resistance 230.87 will give the formation of a rising wave pattern of the level N1 in the General uptrend.

Trading ideas:

Buy above 230.87.

Stop Loss – 255.70.

Target levels – 235.80; 244.90.

AUDUSD Technical analysis

The pair is consolidating above 0.6745 due to the final monetary policy decision by the RBA. The regulator is expected to lower rates by 0.25%, from 1.00% to 0.75%. This may lead to continued local depreciation of the Australian currency.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, below SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is below 50% and declining. Stoch are also declining.

Trade recommendations:

Sell the pair after its decline below 0.6745 with a likely target of 0.6700.

Important support and resistance levels

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to confirm other technical analysis tools – the presence of divergence, reversal candlestick patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky. The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

AUD Analysis

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the sixth session in thirteen sessions from the highest since late July last against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed the weekend on the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Monday by the largest US economy in the world.

At 03:06 AM GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell by 0.07% to 0.6756 levels, compared to the opening levels at 0.6761, after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 0.6754, while achieving the highest at 0.6764, knowing The pair started this week on a bearish price gap after closing last week at 0.6764 levels.

The Australian Institute of Inflation (MI) showed a 0.1% growth versus the zero level in August. This comes just hours before Tuesday's release of several important economic data for the Australian economy. This includes the decisions and orientations of monetary policy makers at the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Analysts' expectations suggest that tomorrow's rate statement may reflect the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy makers resumed a 25bp rate cut to an all-time low of 0.75% from 1.00% following their fixation at the previous meeting following Reduced by 25 basis points in the two meetings preceding the previous meeting.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy, the world's largest industrialized country, to release the industrial sector data with the release of the Chicago PMI reading which may reflect a contraction in the expansion to 50.0 vs. 50.4 in August, before we see tomorrow. The ISM Manufacturing Index is expected to show an expansion to 50.4 versus a contraction of 49.1 in August.

Later in the week, the world's largest economy is looking to release preliminary labor market data ahead of the US labor market data by the end of the week, leading to Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell opening remarks at the Federal Reserve's listening event. Federal Reserve in Washington next Friday.

Technical analysis:

AUDUSD is trading around 0.6760, and the price remains within the descending channel shown, while SMA 50 continues to put pressure on the price.

Therefore, the bearish scenario will remain intact for the coming period, based on stability below 0.6835, noting that our next target is at 0.6670.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6700 support and 0.6790 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

EUR Analysis

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to decline during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the seventh session in the twelve sessions of the highest since August 27 against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday by the euro zone economies and the economy American largest economy in the world.

At 05:07 AM GMT the EURUSD rose 0.01% to 1.0922 levels from the opening at 1.0921, after the pair reached a session high of 1.0926, while reaching a two-year low of 1.0905.

Markets are looking for Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, to release its retail sales figure, which may reflect a rise of 0.5% versus a decline of 2.2% in July, while the annual reading of the same indicator may show slower growth to 2.9% against 4.4%, before we see Spain, the region's fourth-largest economy, has released its annual CPI reading which could show growth at 0.3% unchanged from August.

We may also see the release of inflation data with the release of the preliminary CPI for the previous month, and the release of the change in unemployment, which may reflect a rise to 5 thousand vs. 4 thousand in August, in conjunction with the release of unemployment rates for Italy's third largest Eurozone economies, which may show stability at 9.9%, little changed from the previous reading of July.

Inflation data will also be released to Italy with the preliminary CPI reading which may reflect a contraction of 0.3% vs. 0.4% growth in August, coinciding with the release of the unemployment rate for the euro area as a whole which may show stability for the fourth consecutive month. In more than a decade it stood at 7.5%, little changed from what it was in July.

On the other hand, we followed last Friday the statements of the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, in which he noted that the Brexit without an agreement would lead to a major disaster, expressing that the European Commission is trying in all its efforts to reach an agreement on Brexit, Adding that there is a need to sign a free trade agreement between the parties, but some of these trade agreements take many years to reach.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy, the largest industrialized country in the world, to release the industrial sector data with the release of the Chicago PMI reading which may reflect a decline in the expansion to 50.0 vs. 50.4 in August, and that comes before we see tomorrow The ISM manufacturing reading may show a widening of 50.4 versus a contraction of 49.1 in August.

Later this week, the market is looking forward to the release of preliminary US labor market data before the end of the US labor market data by the end of the week, leading to Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell's opening remarks at a Federal Reserve hearing in Washington next Friday. , That will also speak to many members of the FOMC.

Technical analysis:

EUR / USD continues to fluctuate around 1.0925, and remains within the descending channel shown, noting that the Stochastic is losing its positive momentum to reach overbought areas, waiting for the price to stimulate the resumption of the expected bearish trend for the coming period, whose next target is at 1.0857. .

Therefore, the bearish trend will remain favored for the coming period provided that stability is below 1.1040, noting that exceeding the mentioned target will push the price to 1.0785 as the next major stop.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0820 support and 1.1000 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

Gold Analysis

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to decline during the Asian session amid the rise of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them following the developments and economic data that followed from the Chinese economy, the largest consumer of metals in the world and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday by the US economy In the world.

Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.60% to trade at $ 1490.54 an ounce compared with the opening at 1496.26 an ounce, with the US dollar index up 0.03% to 99.15 compared to the opening at 99.12.

We followed the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) data on the readings of industrial and service purchasing managers, which reported that the contraction of the industrial sector shrank to 49.8 from 49.5 in the previous reading in August, surpassing expectations for a contraction to 49.6, while shrinking. The service sector expanded to 53.7 from 53.8 in August, missing expectations for 53.9.

This came before the Chinese markets will see a prolonged holiday until October 7 due to the National Day holiday in China and before the upcoming round of high-level trade talks in Washington between the United States and China and in the wake of the report that the White House is considering restrictions on investments In China and the possibility of removing Chinese companies from US stock exchanges.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy, the largest industrialized country in the world, to release the industrial sector data with the release of the Chicago PMI reading which may reflect a decline in the expansion to 50.0 vs. 50.4 in August, and that comes before we see tomorrow The ISM manufacturing reading may show a widening of 50.4 versus a contraction of 49.1 in August.

Later this week, the market is looking forward to the release of preliminary US labor market data before the end of the US labor market data by the end of the week, leading to Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell's opening remarks at a Federal Reserve hearing in Washington next Friday. , That will also speak to many members of the FOMC.

Technical analysis:

Gold is resuming its negative trading to approach the pivotal support 1485.00, to provide signals on the trend to break this level and activate the negative impact of the head and shoulders pattern, which features the picture, which will push the price to areas starting at 1447.00 and then 1413.10, but we point out that we need a clear break of the level Initially close four hours below the mentioned level to confirm the continuation of the decline.

Therefore, we will continue to remain neutral until the price confirms the breach of the support 1485.00 or the breach of the resistance 1515.00, noting that the breach of the resistance will push the price to resume the main bullish trend whose next target is at 1555.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 1475.00 support and 1510.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.

JPY Analysis

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the bounce for the fifth session in nine sessions from the highest since early August, when it tested the highest since late May against the Japanese yen following the developments and economic data that followed from the Japanese economy and On the eve of economic developments and data expected on Monday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 06:02 AM GMT, the USDJPY fell 0.17% to 107.79 levels from 107.98 opening levels, after hitting a session low of 107.75 and a high of 108.01. The pair started the session on a bullish price gap after closing last week at 107.92 levels.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) 's summary of the consensus report was released in conjunction with the seasonally adjusted preliminary retail sales figure, which rose 4.8% versus a 2.3% decline in July, beating expectations for a 2.4% rise. The annual reading of the index itself rose 2.0% versus a 2.0% decline in July, also beating expectations for a 0.7% rise.

This came in conjunction with the release of the preliminary reading of industrial production, which showed a decline of 1.2% versus a rise of 1.3% in July, worse than expectations for a decline of 0.5%, and the annual reading of the same index showed a decline of 4.7% against a rise of 0.7%, also worse than expectations The data showed a drop of 3.9% to reveal the housing market data with the release of the annual Housing Starts Index which showed a decline to 7.1% versus 4.1% in July, worse than expectations for a 6.1% decline.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy, the largest industrialized country in the world, to release the industrial sector data with the release of the Chicago PMI reading which may reflect a decline in the expansion to 50.0 vs. 50.4 in August, and that comes before we see tomorrow The ISM manufacturing reading may show a widening of 50.4 versus a contraction of 49.1 in August.

Later this week, the market is looking forward to the release of preliminary US labor market data before the end of the US labor market data by the end of the week, leading to Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell's opening remarks at a Federal Reserve hearing in Washington next Friday. , That will also speak to many members of the FOMC.

Technical analysis:

USDJPY has breached 107.85 once again and stabilized above it, crawling towards 108.30, where the bullish trend is likely over the coming sessions, supported by moving above SMA 50, while Stochastic is trying to get rid of its negative momentum and gain positive momentum over intraday basis.

Thereby, we await further rallies in the coming sessions, and a break above 108.30 will push the price to 109.30 as the next major target, while the bullish bias will remain intact unless the 107.70 level is broken and stability below it.

Expected trading range for today is between 107.30 support and 108.70 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

SBER Bank Stock Analysis

SBER Bank approached 224.64 support near 50% Fibonacci retracement and bounced back under the positive effect of SMA 50

The price started the downtrend after failing to breach 235.96 resistance.

The price is moving below the 20-7 moving averages that form resistance levels but has become above the 50 SMA which is a support level.

Stochastic started to move within an uptrend which will trigger the price to rise and hold the support level.

The expected movement between 210.8 support and 244.06 resistance.

Overall trend: Bearish.