Analysis of currency and stock markets 26.09.2019

Important support and resistance levels

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to confirm other technical analysis tools – the presence of divergence, reversal candlestick patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky.   The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

EURUSD Technical Analysis 

The pair is dropping to the late 2016 lows as the ECB is expected to implement new large-scale measures. If Mario Draghi speaks today about the weakness of the EU economy and the importance of support, the pair will be put under pressure.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, at the level of SMA 5 and below SMA 14. RSI is above the oversold zone and turns down. Stoch are growing and leaving the zone.

Trading recommendations:

Sell the pair after its decline below 1.0940 with probable targets of 1.0925 and 1.0900.

Trading ideas for JSC Aeroflot

A reversal pattern Hammer formed on TF H4. The support level of 101.57 holds back sellers. Bullish divergence formed on Awesome Oscillator, while Stochastic Oscillator that the stock is oversold.

Trading recommendations:

Buy above the resistance level 103.10.

Stop loss below the support level 101.57.

Target levels – 104.87; 107.10; 112.00.

AUDCHF Analysis

Analysis based on round-number levels, price channels and modified Elliot Waves

The currency pair is trading in the range of the important round level 0.6700. The pivot zone 0.6671 held back sellers – there was a false breakout of the level. Stochastic Oscillator on H4 timeframe with parameters 30.10.10 signals oversoldness.

Trading recommendations:

Buy above round secondary level 0.6720.

Stop loss below the pivot zone 0.6670.

Target levels – 0.6820; 0.6950.

AUD Analysis
 

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow uptrend range during the Asian session against the US dollar amid the lack of economic data by the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the US economy, which includes members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 02:41 am GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.09% to 0.6757 levels, compared with the opening levels at 0.6751, after the pair achieved the highest during the session at 0.6761, while the lowest level at 0.6747.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy to reveal the GDP reading which may reflect the stability of the expansion of the largest economy in the world at 2.0%, unchanged from the initial reading of the second quarter and against the expansion of 3.1% in the first quarter. Prices stabilized at 2.4%, unchanged from the previous initial reading and 0.9% in the previous quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the past week on September 21, which may reflect an increase of two thousand applications to 210 thousand applications compared to 208 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims for investors for the past week on 14 This month, an increase of 5 thousand applications to 1,666 thousand applications compared to 1,661 thousand applications.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance of Goods Index which may show the deficit widened to $ 73.3 billion compared to $ 72.3 billion last July, and the preliminary reading of the wholesale inventories index which may reflect the slowing growth to 0.1% vs. 0.2%. In July, the housing market data was released with the release of existing home sales which may show the decline shrank to 1.0% from 2.5% in July.

Investors are also awaiting the outcome of the FOMC speech, as St. Louis Fed President James Pollard is expected to make opening remarks at the event hosted by the St. Louis Fed before we see the Fed's deputy governor. Richard Clarard at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve in San Francisco.

Technical analysis:

AUDUSD resumed its negative trading yesterday to record areas of 0.6740, reinforcing expectations for the continuation of the main bearish trend, which is moving inside the descending channel, supported by negative pressure formed by SMA 50, waiting to visit 0.6670 as the next major stop.

Note that the continuation of the suggested bearish wave requires stability below 0.6850.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6700 support and 0.6800 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bearish

Cisco Stock Analysis

Nothing new in Cisco's stock as price still fluctuates around 50% Fibonacci retracement

SMA 20 is below the price thus forming a support level while SMA 50 is still moving above the price and forming a resistance level.

Stochastic is moving in a sideways path thus enhancing the sideways movement of the price.

General direction of movement: Neutral

EUR Analysis

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow and bullish range during the Asian session against the US dollar on the eve of the developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the economies of the euro zone and the US economy, the largest economy in the world, including the speech of the European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi and the speech of members of the Federal Committee for the open market later today.

At 05:22 AM GMT the EURUSD rose 0.15% to 1.0959 levels from the opening at 1.0943, after the pair reached a session high of 1.0965, while a low of 1.0942.

Markets from Germany, the euro zone's largest economy, are looking to reveal a GFK consumer confidence stat that could reflect a steady 9.7% expansion from September, before we see the ECB monthly report coinciding with the release of the annual supply reading. M-3 monetary for the economies of the region as a whole may reflect slower growth to 5.1% versus 5.2% last July.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure of the annual reading of the index of private loans to the economies of the euro area as a whole, which may show the stability of the pace of growth at 3.4%, little changed from the previous annual reading for the month of July, to the speech of the European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi Opening at the annual conference of the European Systemic Risk Council in Frankfurt.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal the GDP reading, which may reflect the stability of the expansion of the largest economy in the world at 2.0%, unchanged from the initial reading of the second quarter and versus the expansion of 3.1% in the first quarter, as may reflect The same index measured in prices growth stabilized at 2.4%, unchanged from the previous initial reading and compared to 0.9% in the previous reading of the first quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the past week on September 21, which may reflect an increase of two thousand applications to 210 thousand applications compared to 208 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims for investors for the past week on 14 This month, an increase of 5 thousand applications to 1,666 thousand applications compared to 1,661 thousand applications.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance of Goods Index which may show the deficit widened to $ 73.3 billion compared to $ 72.3 billion last July, and the preliminary reading of the wholesale inventories index which may reflect the slowing growth to 0.1% vs. 0.2%. In July, the housing market data was released with the release of existing home sales which may show the decline shrank to 1.0% from 2.5% in July.

Investors are also awaiting the outcome of the FOMC speech, as St. Louis Fed President James Pollard is expected to make opening remarks at the event hosted by the St. Louis Fed before we see the Fed's deputy governor. Richard Clarard at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve in San Francisco.

Technical analysis:

The EURUSD pair made significant negative trading yesterday, approaching the 1.0900 level, to continue moving within the descending channel shown, which supports the chances of continuing the bearish trend towards our next major target at 1.0857.

Therefore, we will continue to favor the bearishness over the coming sessions, keeping in mind that a breach of 1.1060 will stop the expected decline and push the price to test 1.1180 areas before any new attempt to decline.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0860 support and 1.1060 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

JPY Analysis

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness its fifth session rebound in seven sessions from its highest since early August, when it tested its highest since late May against the Japanese yen on the eve of Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's brief remarks. At the annual meeting of securities companies in Tokyo as well as the economic developments and data expected on Thursday on the US economy, including the speech of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 05:59 AM GMT the USDJPY fell 0.10% to 107.66 levels from 107.77 opening levels, after hitting a session low of 107.60 and a high of 107.79.

Investors are currently awaiting the US economy to reveal the GDP reading which may reflect the stability of the expansion of the largest economy in the world at 2.0%, unchanged from the initial reading of the second quarter and against the expansion of 3.1% in the first quarter. Prices stabilized at 2.4%, unchanged from the previous initial reading and 0.9% in the previous quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the past week on September 21, which may reflect an increase of two thousand applications to 210 thousand applications compared to 208 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims for investors for the past week on 14 This month, an increase of 5 thousand applications to 1,666 thousand applications compared to 1,661 thousand applications.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance of Goods Index which may show the deficit widened to $ 73.3 billion compared to $ 72.3 billion last July, and the preliminary reading of the wholesale inventories index which may reflect the slowing growth to 0.1% vs. 0.2%. In July, the housing market data was released with the release of existing home sales which may show the decline shrank to 1.0% from 2.5% in July.

Investors are also awaiting the outcome of the FOMC speech, as St. Louis Fed President James Pollard is expected to make opening remarks at the event hosted by the St. Louis Fed before we see the Fed's deputy governor. Richard Clarard at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve in San Francisco.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday that his country's trade deal with China has become "closer and closer" and that there is a "good chance" of reaching a trade deal, while saying that Beijing has begun extensive purchases of items such as American meat, while also addressing the progress Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe signed a limited agreement to facilitate access to US agricultural goods worth $ 7.2 billion.

Technical analysis:

USDJPY traded positively yesterday to try to breach the pivotal resistance of 107.70, while the day starts with a bearish bias to move below this level, which keeps the bearish trend scenario likely for the day, especially as the stochastic indicator shows negative signs on the four-hour time frame, waiting to target the levels. 107.20 and then 106.70 as the next major stations.

Keep in mind that a breach of 107.70 and stability above it will stop the expected decline and push the price for further gains in the short and intraday.

Expected trading range for today is between 106.70 support and 108.20 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

Gold Analysis

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range upward during the Asian session amid the decline of the US dollar index according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of the speech of the major global central bankers in addition to the developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world Members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 04:14 am GMT gold futures for December delivery rose 0.24% to trade at $ 1505.79 an ounce compared with the opening at 1503.43 an ounce, with the US dollar index down 0.08% to 98.88 compared to the opening at 98.96.

Markets are looking forward to BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's brief remarks at the annual meeting of securities firms in Tokyo, ahead of ECB Governor Mario Draghi's opening speech at the ECB Annual Conference in Frankfurt. Mark Carney of England at a panel discussion on the future of financial services at the same conference in Frankfurt.

Otherwise, investors are awaiting the US economy to reveal the GDP reading which may reflect the stability of the expansion of the largest economy in the world at 2.0%, unchanged from the preliminary reading of the second quarter and against the expansion of 3.1% in the first quarter, and may reflect the same indicator reading In terms of prices, growth stabilized at 2.4%, unchanged from the previous initial reading and compared to 0.9% in the previous reading of the first quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the index of claims for the past week on September 21, which may reflect an increase of two thousand applications to 210 thousand applications compared to 208 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims for investors for the past week on 14 This month, an increase of 5 thousand applications to 1,666 thousand applications compared to 1,661 thousand applications.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance of Goods Index which may show the deficit widened to $ 73.3 billion compared to $ 72.3 billion last July, and the preliminary reading of the wholesale inventories index which may reflect the slowing growth to 0.1% vs. 0.2%. In July, the housing market data was released with the release of existing home sales which may show the decline shrank to 1.0% from 2.5% in July.

Investors are also awaiting the outcome of the FOMC speech, as St. Louis Fed President James Pollard is expected to make opening remarks at the event hosted by the St. Louis Fed before we see the Fed's deputy governor. Richard Clarard at the event hosted by the Federal Reserve in San Francisco.

US President Donald Trump said yesterday that his country's trade deal with China has become "closer and closer" and that there is a "good chance" of reaching a trade deal, while saying that Beijing has begun extensive purchases of items such as American meat, while also addressing the progress Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe signed a limited agreement to facilitate access to US agricultural goods worth $ 7.2 billion.

Technical analysis:

The price of gold stabilized below the main rising trend line, which is now turning into pivotal resistance at 1510.00, where SMA 50 meets to add more strength to it, while Stochastic provides positive signals that push the price to try to breach the mentioned resistance and then restore the main bullish trend again.

Therefore, this inconsistency between technical factors makes us prefer to remain neutral on a temporary basis, waiting for a breakout of the resistance of 1510.00 or a break of 1485.00 support to determine the next destination more precisely, noting that a break of this resistance will push the price to resume the bullish trend whose next main target is at 1555.00, A break of support will complete the formation of a negative pattern with negative targets starting at 1447.00 and extending to 1413.10.

Expected trading range for today is between 1490.00 support and 1530.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.