Analysis of currency and stock markets 23.09.2019

GBPUSD Technical analysis

The pair is clearly turning down after reaching a local high of 1.2575 on the wave of expectations of new Brexit talks between the UK and the EU. The uncertainty of the outcome may result in a correction of the pound.

The price is below the middle Bollinger band, below SMA 5 and SMA 14. Movings suggest selling. RSI crosses the level of 50%, giving a sell signal. Stoch are oversold and uninformative.

Trade recommendations:

Sell the pair after its decline below 1.2445 with its probable drop to 1.2280.

Trading ideas for American Express Co. (NYSE)

The support level of 116.46 continues to discourage sellers. The Awesome Oscillator indicator has formed a Bullish divergence, while the Stochastic Oscillator indicator signals that the stock is oversold. Price pivot zone 117.45 holds back the bulls.

Trading recommendations:

Buy above the mirror level of 117.45.

Stop Loss below the support level 116.46.

Target levels – 119.50; 123.06.

GBPUSD Analysis

Analysis based on round-number levels, price channels and modified Elliot Waves

The price pivot zone of 1.2558 held back the bulls. The inclined channel of the ascending pattern is breached. The breakout of 1.2458 will result in a formation of a descending wave pattern.

Trading recommendations:

Buy below 1.2458.

Stop Loss – 1.2582.

Target levels – 1.2380 (close ½ and move to breakeven); 1.2020.

Important support and resistance levels

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to confirm other technical analysis tools – the presence of divergence, reversal candlestick patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky. The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

AUD Analysis 

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the rebound to the eighth session from its highest since late July against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed the weekend of the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday before The US economy is the largest economy in the world which includes the speech of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 02:57 AM GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell by 0.04% to 0.6778 levels, compared to the opening levels at 0.6775, after the pair achieved the lowest during the trading session at 0.6765, while achieving the highest at 0.6779, knowing The pair started this week on a bullish price gap after closing last week at 0.6766 levels.

This was followed by the release of the preliminary manufacturing PMI for September, which showed a contraction of 49.4 vs. an expansion of 50.9 in August, coinciding with the preliminary reading of the services PMI for the month. Which showed an expansion to 52.5 versus a contraction of 49.1 in August.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the release of the preliminary reading of the manufacturing and services PMI from the US, amid expectations that the industrial sector will expand at 50.3, unchanged from the previous reading in August, while the reading may show Initial Service Purchasing Managers' Index expanded to 51.5 vs. 50.7 in August.

Later in the day, markets are looking ahead to FOMC members' speech, as Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams is expected to brief us at the US Treasury market conference in New York via satellite, before witnessing the speech of St. Louis Bank President. Federal Reserve James Bullard on the US economy and monetary policy at the Luncheon Chamber of Commerce lunch in Illinois.

This comes just hours after the September 17-18 FOMC meeting in Washington, during which the Fed's monetary policy makers decided to cut interest rates on federal funds for the second consecutive meeting by 25 basis points to 1.75. 2.00%, which was in line with expectations at the time, with the disclosure of the Committee's expectations on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Technical analysis:

AUDUSD is resuming its negative trade quietly to move away from the descending channel resistance, reinforcing expectations for the bearishness to continue in the intraday and short term, awaiting a visit to 0.6670 which is our next main target.

Negative pressure from SMA 50 supports the bearish outlook, which requires a continuation below 0.6860.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6720 support and 0.6800 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bearish

EUR Analysis

The euro held steady on Monday against a basket of global currencies, in a limited range of trading against the US dollar, as investors were reluctant to build new positions, ahead of important data on key sectors in Europe, which provides evidence of the performance of the euro economy during the third quarter of This year, in addition to waiting for the testimony of European Central Bank Governor "Mario Draghi" before the unified parliament in Brussels.

The euro against the dollar by 06:34 GMT, trading at $ 1.1019 from an opening price of $ 1.1015 after recording the highest price of $ 1.1025, and the lowest of $ 1.1002.

On Friday, the euro lost 0.2% against the dollar, its second consecutive daily loss, as investors focused on developments in trade talks between the United States and China.

The euro fell last week by 0.5% against the US dollar, the first weekly loss in the last three weeks, due to the Federal Reserve's statement, which reduced the possibility of a third US rate cut this year.

Later in the day, investors awaited data on key sectors of the European economy, to survey the extent of the economic recovery in the euro zone in the third quarter, to be released respectively the preliminary reading of the PMI manufacturing and service sectors across Europe in September.

By 13:00 GMT, the testimony of European Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi will begin before the European Parliament's Committee on Economics and Monetary Affairs in Brussels.

Following the September 12 meeting, the European Central Bank announced new stimulus measures to support the euro economy, including a 10 basis point cut in deposit rates to minus 0.5%, and launched a new bond purchase program by about 20 billion euros a month starting in November. Next, this is fueled by increased risks and weak inflation in Europe.

Investors are looking through Draghi's comments for new evidence of the ECB's outlook on future economic developments, and whether further stimulus measures are needed, which could be announced at future central bank meetings.

Technical analysis:

EUR / USD has provided negative trading to approach the 1.1000 barrier, reinforcing expectations that the bearish trend will continue within the descending channel shown, supported by the negative pressure that SMA 50 continues to provide, along with the negativity of stochastic, awaiting the trend towards 1.0857 mainly.

Keep in mind that a break of 1.1075 will stop the expected decline and push the price to test 1.1180 areas just before any fresh attempt to fall.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0930 support and 1.1100 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

Gold Analysis 

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session to rebound for the fourth consecutive session from the lowest since August 7 amid the decline of the dollar index for the eleventh session in fifteen sessions from the highest since May 12 from In 2017, according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Monday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, which includes the speech of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 04:40 am GMT, gold futures for December delivery rose 0.05% to trade at $ 1511.90 an ounce compared to the opening at 1512.35 an ounce after reaching the highest price at 1519.32, with the US dollar index down 0.03% to 98.48 Compared to the opening at 98.51.

Investors are now looking to unveil the US Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI, with expectations that the manufacturing sector will stabilize at 50.3, unchanged from the previous August. Service purchases expanded to 51.5 from 50.7 in August.

Later in the day, markets are looking ahead to FOMC members' speech, as Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams is expected to brief us at the US Treasury market conference in New York via satellite, before witnessing the speech of St. Louis Bank President. Federal Reserve James Bullard on the US economy and monetary policy at the Luncheon Chamber of Commerce lunch in Illinois.

This comes just hours after the September 17-18 FOMC meeting in Washington, during which the Fed's monetary policy makers decided to cut interest rates on federal funds for the second consecutive meeting by 25 basis points to 1.75. 2.00%, which was in line with expectations at the time, with the disclosure of the Committee's expectations on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

In view of the development of trade talks, we have followed the Chinese Ministry of Commerce expressed that the discussions of economic and trade conditions held last weekend in Washington between the two largest economic powers in the world "constructive" and good on the "detailed arrangements" for the forthcoming trade talks in October High-profile, and that both the United States and China agreed to stay in touch.

This came after the US Trade Representative's Office last Friday issued a brief statement describing the two-day talks with China as "fruitful" amid the assertion that the high-level trade meeting between the two parties will be held in Washington next month as planned. Last weekend, the United States also removed tariffs on more than 400 Chinese products in response to orders from US companies.

Otherwise, investors are awaiting caution on the eve of national holidays next week in China. Following the Chinese delegation's cancellation last week of a planned visit to US agricultural states, particularly Montana, which was priced in the markets that the recent trade negotiations were Fragile on the eve of the high-level talks between the parties expected by 10 October.

Technical analysis:

Gold confirmed the breach of 1505.00 level after ending last Friday trading above, to activate the bullish scenario again, on its way to achieve gains starting at 1524.00 and extending to 1555.00 after breaching the previous level.

Therefore, we expect the bullish trend to continue during the coming sessions supported by a move above SMA 50, provided that the price keeps its stability above 1485.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 1505.00 support and 1535.00 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bullish

JPY Analysis

The US dollar fluctuated in a narrow bullish range during the Asian session to see the bounce resumed from its lowest since November 9, 2016 for the 13th session in 21 sessions against the Japanese yen amid the lack of economic data earlier this week by the Japanese economy Due to Japan's moderation holiday and on the eve of economic developments and data expected on Monday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world, which includes the speech of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 06:32 am GMT, the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.08% to 107.72 levels compared to the opening levels at 107.72, after the pair reached its highest level during the session at 107.80, while the lowest level at 107.61, knowing The pair started this week on a bullish price gap after closing last week at 107.56 levels.

Investors are now looking to unveil the US Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI, with expectations that the manufacturing sector will stabilize at 50.3, unchanged from the previous August. Service purchases expanded to 51.5 from 50.7 in August.

Later in the day, markets are looking ahead to FOMC members' speech, as Federal Reserve Chairman John Williams is expected to brief us at the US Treasury market conference in New York via satellite, before witnessing the speech of St. Louis Bank President. Federal Reserve James Bullard on the US economy and monetary policy at the Luncheon Chamber of Commerce lunch in Illinois.

Technical analysis:

USDJPY is attempting to breach 107.53 but remains above it so far, keeping the bullish scenario valid for now, and the pair needs to get enough positive incentive to push the trade to breach 108.30 and then open the way to the next target at 109.30.

Keep in mind that a break of 107.70 and holding below it will stop the positive outlook and press the price to turn bearish.

Expected trading range for today is between 107.00 support and 108.50 resistance

Expected trend for today: Bullish

SberBank Bank Stock Analysis

SberBank  Stock  had reached the resistance of 235.96, and bounced back from it to correct the path, which temporarily halted the bullish movement after the stock managed to breach the EMA 50 last week and stabilize above it.

The price continues the bullish move which was confirmed after exiting the descending channel that has been trading for the past two weeks.

The price is moving above the 20-50 moving averages that form support levels but it is below the moving average 7.

The stochastic is in a bearish path and the continuation of the move downwards will stimulate the price to decline further.

Expected movement between 210.8 support and 244.06 resistance

The general trend is to the upside