Analysis of currency and stock markets 19.09.2019

 AUDUSD Technical analysis 

The pair remains under pressure due to expectations of a reduction in interest rates by the RBA before the end of this year. At the same time, the outcome of the Fed meeting didn’t have a significant impact on the US dollar.

The price is below the lower Bollinger band, below SMA 5 and SMA 14. RSI is in the oversold zone. Stoch is also there.

Trading recommendations:

Sell the pair as it goes below 0.6780 or rebounds from 0.6800 with a likely target of 0.6700.

Trading ideas for PJSC «LUKOIL»

The overall movement is upward. The downward pattern is truncated.  An ascending pattern is being formed while completing the descending structure by breaking through the inclined channel. Stochastic Oscillator indicates oversoldness.

Trading recommendations:

Buy above 5465.0 (on the ascending structure formation).

Stop Loss – 5415.0.

Target levels - 5554.0; 5726.0.

GBPUSD Analysis

Analysis based on round-number levels, price channels and modified Elliot Waves

Rising design is truncated. The level of 1.2530 holds back buyers, a bearish divergence formed on MACD. The breakthrough of the support level 1.2440 will result in a formation of an H1 level descending pattern.

Trading recommendations:

Sell below 1.2440.

Stop Loss – 1.2530.

Target levels – 1.2360. (closing ½ and move to breakeven); 1.2210.

Call Put levels

When buying an option against the trend, it is necessary to confirm other technical analysis tools – the presence of divergence, reversal candlestick patterns. Buy against the trend strictly on the retest level! Buying an option before publishing important economic news is considered risky. The expiration time depends on the strength of the level and confirmation by additional tools of technical and fundamental analysis.

EUR Analysis

The single currency of the European Union (EU) has fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session, bouncing back to its fourth session in six of its lowest since September 3, when it tested its lowest since May 15, 2017 against the US dollar. On the eve of the economic developments and data expected on Thursday by the economies of the euro zone and the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 05:51 AM GMT the EURUSD rose 0.08% to 1.1010 levels from the opening at 1.1001, after the pair reached a session high of 1.1014, while a low of 1.0998.

Investors are looking ahead to the Eurozone economies as a whole, revealing the seasonally adjusted Current Account reading, which could reflect a widening surplus to EUR 20.3 billion from EUR 18.4 billion last June. Juncker told the European Parliament that the risk of Brexit without an agreement remained.

The European Commission President Juncker also told the European Parliament yesterday that it is possible to reach an agreement on Britain's exit from the European Union, in the case of reaching a settlement on the main thorny issues that prevent the agreement, led by the Irish border and the plan of Pakistan. Progress on the Brexit file until the UK submits its proposals to resolve these thorny issues.

European Commission President Juncker also said his recent talks with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson had been friendly and constructive, although he said it was uncertain whether an agreement on Brexit could be reached at the moment, especially since there was not enough time before. The deadline for Brexit, which has already been postponed until the end of October.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy for the release of the current account reading which may reflect a shrinking deficit to $ 127 billion compared to $ 130 billion during the first quarter, in conjunction with the disclosure of the Philadelphia industrial index by the largest industrialized country in the world which may Reflecting the shrinkage widened to 10.9 vs. 16.8 last August.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the number of claims applications for the past week on the 14th of this month, which may reflect an increase of 6 thousand applications to 214 thousand applications compared to 204 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims applications for investors for the past week in The seventh of this month increased by two thousand applications to 1,672 thousand applications against 1,670 thousand applications.

Leading indicators, which may show a contraction to 0.1% from 0.5% in July, coinciding with the release of the US housing market data with the release of the Existing Home Sales, which may show a 0.7% decline to 5.39 million versus 2.5% rise at 5.42 million homes in July's prior reading.

This comes just hours after the FOMC meeting, during which the Fed's monetary policy makers approved a 25bp cut in federal funds for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. Expectations, with the disclosure of the Committee's expectations on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Technical Analysis:

EUR / USD is trading around the 1.1040 level, and the price holds steady below the descending channel resistance, as it is under constant negative pressure from SMA 50, while Stochastic continues to provide overbought signals.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to continue to favor the bearishness over the coming sessions, which mainly targets 1.0857, while achieving it requires stability below 1.1085.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0950 support and 1.1100 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.

Gold Analysis

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness the rebound for the seventh session in the twelve sessions from the highest since April 10, 2013, overlooking the decline of the dollar index for the tenth session in thirteen sessions from the highest since May 12 May 2017 According to the inverse relationship between them after the disclosure of the decisions and directions of the Bank of Japan and on the threshold of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 04:07 am GMT, gold futures for December delivery rose 0.30% to trade at 1495.77 an ounce compared with the opening at 1492.64 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 98.47 compared to the opening at 98.57.

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy makers acknowledged that interest rates will remain negative at 0.10%, which was expected by both markets, as the Bank of Japan's monetary policy statement was released. Investors are looking forward to the outcome of the press conference. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is holding it in Tokyo, especially following the recent Fed and ECB rate cuts.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy for the release of the current account reading which may reflect a shrinking deficit to $ 127 billion compared to $ 130 billion during the first quarter, in conjunction with the disclosure of the Philadelphia industrial index by the largest industrialized country in the world which may Reflecting the shrinkage widened to 10.9 vs. 16.8 last August.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the number of claims applications for the past week on the 14th of this month, which may reflect an increase of 6 thousand applications to 214 thousand applications compared to 204 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims applications for investors for the past week in The seventh of this month increased by two thousand applications to 1,672 thousand applications against 1,670 thousand applications.

Leading indicators, which may show a contraction to 0.1% from 0.5% in July, coinciding with the release of the US housing market data with the release of the Existing Home Sales, which may show a 0.7% decline to 5.39 million versus 2.5% rise at 5.42 million homes in July's prior reading.

This comes just hours after the FOMC meeting, during which the Fed's monetary policy makers approved a 25bp cut in federal funds for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. Expectations, with the disclosure of the Committee's expectations on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

In view of the developments in the trade talks, we followed yesterday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe next Wednesday to finalize the trade agreement between Washington and Tokyo, to be signed between the United States and Japan At the UN General Assembly meeting by the end of this month.

On the other hand, Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi also noted yesterday that Japan should ensure that the United States does not impose more tariffs on Japanese cars before signing any trade agreement between the two countries, noting that no agreement has been reached on Tokyo's exports of cars. To Washington so far.

US President Trump noted Monday that his country has reached initial trade agreements with Japan. Otherwise, markets are now looking to launch a new round of trade talks between the US and China at the level of deputy officials in Washington in preparation for the upcoming high-level talks between the two sides by the beginning of the month. Next which aims to resolve the existing trade disputes between the two largest economists in the world.

Technical analysis:

Gold price traded strongly negative yesterday evening to break the rising trend line and stabilize below it, and by looking closely at the chart, we find that the price formed a head and shoulders pattern showing its features in the picture, which means that breaking 1485.00 will activate the negative effect of this pattern and pressuring the price to start a bearish corrective wave.

Now, we prefer to remain neutral until we get a clearer signal for the next trend, which will be obtained by breaking the support 1485.00 or breaching the resistance of 1505.00, noting that breaking the mentioned support will push the price to 1447.00 as the next major target, while a breach of 1505.00 will lead the price to resume. The main bullish trend which targets at 1524.00 and extends to 1555.00 after breaching the previous level.

Expected trading range for today is between 1475.00 support and 1525.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Neutral.

JPY Analysis 

The US dollar fell during the Asian session to witness a rebound for the second session from the highest since early August, when it tested the highest since late May against the Japanese yen following the developments and economic data that followed from the Japanese economy, which includes decisions and trends of the Bank of Japan on the threshold of developments and data The economic outlook is expected Thursday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 06:03 AM GMT, USD / JPY fell 0.48% to 107.93 levels from 108.45 opening levels, after hitting a session low of 107.79 and a high of 108.47.

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy makers acknowledged that interest rates will remain negative at 0.10%, which was expected by both markets, with the release of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy statement. It showed a 0.2% gain versus a 0.7% decline in June, below expectations for a 0.4% rise.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy for the release of the current account reading which may reflect a shrinking deficit to $ 127 billion compared to $ 130 billion during the first quarter, in conjunction with the disclosure of the Philadelphia industrial index by the largest industrialized country in the world which may Reflecting the shrinkage widened to 10.9 vs. 16.8 last August.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the number of claims applications for the past week on the 14th of this month, which may reflect an increase of 6 thousand applications to 214 thousand applications compared to 204 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims applications for investors for the past week in The seventh of this month increased by two thousand applications to 1,672 thousand applications against 1,670 thousand applications.

Leading indicators, which may show a contraction to 0.1% from 0.5% in July, coinciding with the release of the US housing market data with the release of the Existing Home Sales, which may show a 0.7% decline to 5.39 million versus 2.5% rise at 5.42 million homes in July's prior reading.

This comes just hours after the FOMC meeting, during which the Fed's monetary policy makers approved a 25bp cut in federal funds for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. Expectations, with the disclosure of the Committee's expectations on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Technical analysis:

USDJPY opens today with strong negativity to approach the pivotal support of 107.85, which requires attention from the upcoming trading, as the continuation of the decline and breaking this level will stop the positive scenario proposed in our recent reports and press the price to return to the downside path again.

So far, the bullish trend is still likely for the coming period provided stability above 107.85, supported by SMA 50, noting that our next main target extends to 108.75.

Expected trading range for today is between 107.00 support and 108.75 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.

Cisco Stock Analysis

Cisco tested the support level of 49.33 and was unable to break it yesterday to close above the mentioned support level

SMA 20 is below the price thus forming a support level while SMA 50 is still moving above the price and forming a resistance level

Stochastic has exited the overbought area on a downtrend, thus increasing pressure on the price to retest support again.

AUD Analysis

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to witness the rebound to the fourth session from its highest since late July against the US dollar following the developments and economic data released by the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the US economy, the world's largest economy.

At 03:03 AM GMT, the AUDUSD fell 0.45% to 0.6780 levels, compared to the opening levels of 0.6825, after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 0.6778, while achieving the highest at 0.6830.

The Australian economy released labor market data which showed that the unemployment rate rose to 5.3% vs. 5.2% in the previous reading last July, thus reading the current reading higher than analysts expected to stabilize at the same previous rate. The Employment Change reading showed that the rise shrank to 34.7K versus 36.4K in July, beating expectations of 15.2K.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy for the release of the current account reading which may reflect a shrinking deficit to $ 127 billion compared to $ 130 billion during the first quarter, in conjunction with the disclosure of the Philadelphia industrial index by the largest industrialized country in the world which may Reflecting the shrinkage widened to 10.9 vs. 16.8 last August.

This comes in conjunction with the issuance of the number of claims applications for the past week on the 14th of this month, which may reflect an increase of 6 thousand applications to 214 thousand applications compared to 204 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading, as may read the index of claims applications for investors for the past week in The seventh of this month increased by two thousand applications to 1,672 thousand applications against 1,670 thousand applications.

Leading indicators, which may show a contraction to 0.1% from 0.5% in July, coinciding with the release of the US housing market data with the release of the Existing Home Sales, which may show a 0.7% decline to 5.39 million versus 2.5% rise at 5.42 million homes in July's prior reading.

This comes just hours after the FOMC meeting, during which the Fed's monetary policy makers approved a 25bp cut in federal funds for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. Expectations, with the disclosure of the Committee's expectations on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Technical analysis:

AUDUSD has managed to achieve our first awaited target at 0.6795 and surpass it to stabilize below it, supporting expectations for the continuation of the bearish trend over the intraday and short term, organized within the descending channel shown, waiting to visit the level of 0.6670 as the next major stop.

Therefore, we hold onto our bearish expectations unless 0.6865 is breached and hold above it.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6730 support and 0.6820 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.