AUD Analysis 17.09.2019

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to see its rebound for the third session from its highest since late July against the US dollar following the developments and economic data followed by the Australian economy, which included the disclosure of the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting held earlier this month and on the eve of developments The economic data expected on Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 03:03 AM GMT, the AUDUSD retreated 0.31% to 0.6844 levels, compared with opening levels at 0.6865, after the pair reached its lowest level during the session at 0.6841, while the highest level at 0.6870.

The RBA unveiled the minutes of its September 3 meeting, during which the RBA monetary policy makers decided to hold short-term interest rates at an all-time low for the second consecutive meeting at 1.00%, which was expected. By market analysts back then.

We would like to note that the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy makers have expressed in their record that the upward trend in wage growth appears to have stalled and that risks to the global outlook are still tilted to the downside, indicating that it will consider further easing of monetary policy if necessary. , While emphasizing that it is reasonable to expect an "extended period" of low interest rates to achieve employment and inflation targets.

This came in conjunction with the release of the Australian housing market data with the release of the house price index, which showed a decline in the decline to 0.7% compared to 3.0% in the first quarter of last year, exceeding expectations that the decline to decline to 1.0%, while the annual reading of the same index showed the stability of the decline At 7.4%, little changed from the previous annual reading of the first quarter, also surpassing expectations for a widening decline to 7.4%.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy, the largest industrial countries in the world, the release of the industrial production index, which may show a growth of 0.2% versus a decline of 0.2% in July, while the reading of the energy utilization rate may show that growth accelerated to 77.6% against 77.5%, This is before we see the release of the housing market data with the release of the housing index by the National Association of Home Builders which may reflect a stable at 66 during September.

Markets are also looking to kick off the FOMC meeting later today and Wednesday in Washington, which is expected to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the second consecutive meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00% simultaneously. With the disclosure of the expectations of members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell will hold a press conference tomorrow, half an hour after the FOMC meeting, which has been widely criticized by US President Donald Trump. Powell cut interest rates "to zero or less."

Technical Analysis 

AUDUSD found strong resistance at 0.6885, bouncing down and signaling a resumption of the downtrend within the descending main channel shown, supported by negative signals from Stochastic.

Therefore, we expect to see further declines in the coming sessions unless 0.6885 is breached and hold above it, noting that our next main target is at 0.6670.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6760 support and 0.6885 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.