Gold Analysis 13.09.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to witness its fifth session rebound in eight sessions from the highest since April 10, 2013 and is preparing for its longest weekly loss rallies in thirteen months, ignoring the decline of the dollar index for the eighth session in Nine sessions from the highest since the highest since May 12, 2017 according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Friday by the US economy. The largest economy in the world.

Morning gold futures for December delivery rose 60% to trade at $ 1503.90 an ounce compared with the opening at 1497.43 an ounce, while the US dollar index fell 0.08% to 98.33 compared to the opening at 98.41.

Markets are now looking to the US economy to reveal a reading of retail sales, which accounts for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which may reflect a slowing pace of growth to 0.2% versus 0.7% last July. The core reading of the index slowed the pace of growth to 0.1% from 1.0% in July.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the import price index, which may show a decline of 0.5% versus a rise of 0.2% in July, while the annual reading of the same indicator may widen the decline to 2.0% against 1.8%, and before we see the release of wholesale inventories, which may It shows a rise of 0.3% against steady June zero levels.

As a result of the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index, which may reflect an expansion to 90.4 vs. 89.9 last August, otherwise, US President Donald Trump yesterday continued his criticism of the Federal Reserve for interest on federal funds, particularly after the Bank deepened. The ECB has a negative deposit rate to -0.50% and its intention to reactivate the QE program later.

"They are trying, and are succeeding, to devalue the euro against an overly strong dollar, which is hurting US exports," the US president said Thursday, tweeting through his official Twitter account. They get money to borrow, while we pay interest! "

US President Trump on Tuesday called on the Federal Reserve and its governor, Jerome Powell, to cut interest rates on federal funds "to zero or less," less than a week before the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, which is expected to take place. To reveal the expectations of the members of the Committee on growth rates, inflation and unemployment in addition to the future of interest rates for the next three years.

In another context, we also followed yesterday's remarks by US President Trump that he would like to sign a full trade agreement with Beijing, but he left the door open for a limited agreement, as he noted in his tweet to him that Beijing is expected to go to buy more US agricultural products in the coming period, which raised the hopes of markets to resolve trade disputes between the two largest economies in the world.

This came hours after US President Trump last Wednesday postponed the increase of customs duties on Chinese goods worth $ 250 billion from 25% to 30% for about two weeks as a "goodwill gesture", specifically until October 15, which was supposed to enter It will take effect early next month, announcing that then by tweeting it through his official Twitter account.

"At the request of Chinese Vice Premier Liu Hu, and in view of the fact that the People's Republic of China will celebrate its 70th anniversary on October 1, they agreed, as a goodwill gesture, to postpone the increase in tariffs," he said. Goods worth $ 250 billion, from October 1st to October 15th. "

The tweets came hours after the Chinese Ministry of Finance announced last Tuesday that 16 categories of US products would be excluded from 25 percent tariffs, which have been in effect since last year, including those for animals and some oils. Customs duties starting from September 17 for a year to expire on September 16 next year 2020.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold completed the formation of a bearish wedge pattern that appears in the picture, trading positively yesterday, and returns to fluctuation near the main rising trend line shown in the picture, accompanied by the arrival of stochastic to oversold areas.

Therefore, these factors encourage us to favor the bullish bias during the coming sessions, and the targets begin to confirm the breach of the 1508.00 barrier to open the way for the rally towards 1555.00 zones mainly, taking into consideration that the breach of 1485.00 will stop the expected rally and pressurize the price to start a short term corrective wave.

Expected trading range for today is between 1485.00 support and 1525.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.