EUR Analysis 05.09.2019

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to decline during the Asian session to witness a rebound from the highest since late August last against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by Germany, the largest economies of the euro zone and the US economy the world.

At 05:14 am GMT, EUR / USD fell 0.05% to 1.1030 levels from the opening at 1.1035, after hitting a session low of 1.1025, while hitting a one-week high of 1.1039.

Markets are looking ahead to Germany to reveal a factory orders reading which may show a 1.5% decline versus a 2.5% rise in June, while a seasonally adjusted annualized reading of the same index may show a decline to 4.2% versus 3.6%. Yesterday, the European Union's Trade Commission, Cecilia Malmström, reported that there had been little progress with the US on the industrial goods agreement.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to release preliminary data for the labor market with the release of the indicator of the change in the private sector jobs, which may reflect the slowing pace of job creation to 148 thousand jobs added from 156 thousand jobs added last July. Hours before the release of the monthly report on non-farm payrolls and unemployment rates in addition to the hourly income rate for August.

This comes before we also witnessed by the largest economy in the world to reveal the final reading of the productivity index and the cost of one work, and is expected to show the productivity index slower growth to 2.2% compared to 2.3% growth in the initial reading for the second quarter and against 3.4% growth in the previous reading For the first quarter, while the cost index reading may show growth accelerated to 2.5% compared to 2.4% in the initial reading and against a contraction of 1.6% in the first quarter.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the jobless claims figure for the past week at the end of August, which may reflect stability at 215K, unchanged from the previous weekly reading, while the jobless claims reading for the week past August 24 may show a decline. 10 thousand applications to 1,688 thousand applications compared to 1,698 thousand applications in the previous weekly reading.

The Markit Institute for Services PMI final reading for the US may reflect an expansion to 51.0 compared to 50.9 in August and 53.0 in July, before the ISI reading may be released. It expanded to 54.0 from 53.7 in July, coinciding with the release of factory orders which could show growth accelerated to 1.0% from 0.6% in June.

Technical Analysis

EUR / USD stabilized above 1.1005, leading to a bullish correction over intraday basis, aiming to test the resistance of the descending channel shown at 1.1135, noting that we will wait for a bearish rebound after touching the mentioned resistance to resume the main bearish trend. Again.

Therefore, the bullish bias is likely for today unless 1.1005 is breached and stability below it again, as breaking this level will push the price to continue the main bearish trend with its next target at 1.0857.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0940 support and 1.1135 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Temporarily bullish.