Gold Analysis 03.09.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow range, tilted lower during the Asian session to see its fifth session rebound in six sessions from the highest since April 11, 2013 amid the rise of the US dollar index to its highest since May 12, 2017 according to The reverse of the relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world and amid the aspiration of decisions and directions of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

At 04:03 am GMT, gold futures for December delivery fell 0.16% to a low of $ 1521.73 and then back up to trade at $ 1527.30 an ounce, compared with the opening at $ 1526.67 an ounce, amid the rise of the dollar index 0.19% To 99.27 compared to the opening at 99.08.

Investors are currently looking to unveil the final reading of the US Manufacturing PMI by Markit which could reflect an expansion of 50.0 vs. a contraction of 49.9 in the initial reading of last month and vs. 50.4 in July. The Construction Expenditure reading, which reflects a rise of 0.3% versus a decline of 1.3% in June.

Markets from the world's largest industrialized nations are also looking to reveal the ISM Manufacturing Index, which may show a steady expansion at 51.2, little changed from July, while the same price index reading could show contraction shrinking to 47.6 vs. 45.1, up to a member's speech. Federal Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren about the US economy at Stonehill College in Massachusetts.

By the end of this week, investors will be looking to release US labor market data before Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell and a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the event hosted by the Swiss Institute for International Studies in Zurich.

In another context, the market is looking forward to the decisions and orientations of monetary policy makers at the Reserve Bank of Australia with the release of the RBA interest rate statement amid expectations of stabilizing for the second consecutive meeting after it was reduced in the previous two meetings of the last meeting by 25 basis points to 1.00%, and that Before tomorrow, we will see the release of growth data for the second quarter, which may reflect the acceleration of the pace of growth.

On Monday, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it had filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the new US tariffs, which came into effect in early September on Chinese goods worth $ 112 billion, including shoes, smart watches and televisions. Flat in the latest escalation of the trade war between the two largest economies in the world.

Last Sunday, China also began to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods and goods worth $ 75 billion. We should note that by the middle of this month, it is expected to impose new US tariffs 15% on Chinese goods and commodities worth $ 160 billion. Including laptops and mobile phones, this comes with the prospect of resuming trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing this month.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold starts today with a new bearish bias to put pressure on SMA 50, but since the price is above 1517.25, our expectations for the bullish trend will remain effective for the coming period, as breaking this level will pressure the price to incur losses that reach initial targets at 1493.80.

On the other hand, the price needs to breach the 1531.00 level to enhance the chances of resuming the bullish trend, whose next main target is at 1560.00.

Expected trading range for today is between 1510.00 support and 1545.00 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bullish.