AUD Analysis 03.09.2019

The Australian dollar fell during the Asian session to witness the lowest since August 26 against the US dollar following the developments and economic data followed by the Australian economy and on the threshold of decisions and directions of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the economic data expected on Tuesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 02:54 AM GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell 0.37% to 0.6691 levels, compared to the opening levels at 0.6716, after the pair reached its lowest level in a week at 0.6691, while achieving the highest during the trading session at 0.6719.

The Australian economy followed the release of the Retail Sales figure which showed a decline of 0.1% versus a rise of 0.4% in June, worse than expectations for slowing growth to 0.2%, in conjunction with the release of the current account reading showed a surplus of 5.9 A $ 1 billion against a deficit of A $ 1.1 billion in the first quarter, beating expectations for a surplus of A $ 1.5 billion.

Otherwise, markets are looking ahead to RBA policymakers' decisions as the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate statement is released amid expectations of a second straight meeting after it was cut in the previous two meetings by 25 basis points to 1.00%, before Tomorrow we will witness the release of the second quarter growth data which may reflect the accelerated pace of growth.

On the other hand, investors are looking ahead to reveal the final reading of the manufacturing PMI by Markit on the US which may reflect a widening of 50.0 vs. a contraction of 49.9 in the initial reading of last month and versus a widening of 50.4 in July, comes before The Construction Spending reading, which reflects a rise of 0.3% against a decline of 1.3% in June.

Markets from the world's largest industrialized nations are also looking to reveal the ISM Manufacturing Index, which may show a steady expansion at 51.2, little changed from July, while the same price index reading could show contraction shrinking to 47.6 vs. 45.1, up to a member's speech. Federal Open Market Committee and Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren about the US economy at Stonehill College in Massachusetts.

By the end of this week, investors will be looking to release US labor market data before Friday's speech by Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell and a speech entitled “Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy” at the event hosted by the Swiss Institute for International Studies in Zurich.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD is resuming its negative trading to surpass the 0.6700 level and settle below it, supporting the continuation of the bearish trend over intraday and short term, paving the way towards achieving our next target at 0.6615.

SMA 50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave, while stability below 0.6740 is a prerequisite for the continuation of the expected decline.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6630 support and 0.6740 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.