EUR Analysis 29.08.2019

The single currency of the European Union (EU) has fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by Eurozone economies and the world's largest economy.

At 04:30 AM GMT the EURUSD rose 0.05% to 1.1083 levels from the opening at 1.1077, after hitting a session high of 1.1087 and a low of 1.1077.

Markets are looking for France, the second largest economy in the euro zone to reveal the final reading of the GDP index, which may reflect the stability of growth at 0.2% unchanged from the previous reading in the previous second quarter, and may also show the final annual reading of the index itself Growth stabilized at 1.3%, little changed from the previous quarterly reading.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the French consumer spending index, which may reflect a rise of 0.4% versus a decline of 0.1% last June, before we see the release of inflation data for Spain, the fourth largest economy of the euro zone with the release of the preliminary annual CPI reading which It may reflect a slower pace of growth to 0.4% versus 0.5% in the prior yearly July reading.

Germany's largest economy revealed inflation data with the preliminary annual CPI reading which could show a contraction of 0.1% vs. 0.5% in July, and the annual reading of the same index showed a slowing pace of growth to 1.5% vs. 1.7%. Before we also see the release of Germany's Unemployment Change, which may reflect a rise to 4k versus 1k in July.

On Wednesday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker warned British Prime Minister Boris Johnson that if Britain leaves the EU without an agreement, Britain should take responsibility for that alone without blaming the bloc if the situation deteriorates. He explained that the Union is fully prepared for the scenario of exit without agreement, but will make all possible efforts to avoid this, adding that the decision to exit without agreement will be Britain alone and not the European Union.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy to reveal the second reading of GDP, which may reflect the expansion of the largest economy in the world 2.0% during the second quarter compared to the previous initial reading of 2.1% growth, while the second reading of GDP may show measured Prices have stabilized at 2.4%, little changed from the previous quarter's preliminary reading.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the Trade Balance of Goods, which may show the deficit narrowed to $ 74.0 billion from $ 74.2 billion in June, and the release of the preliminary reading of the wholesale inventory index, which may reflect a growth of 0.2% against the stability at zero levels in June, In addition, the reading of the number of applications for the previous week on the 24th of this month, which may reflect an increase of 6 thousand applications to 215 thousand applications.

Technical Analysis

The narrow range continues to dominate the EURUSD trading, which is quietly creeping downwards, keeping our bearish outlook intact for the coming period, supported by negative pressure from SMA 50, noting that our next target is at 1.1000, Stability below 1.1180 is an important condition for the continuation of the expected decline.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.0980 support and 1.1150 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.