AUD Analysis 26.08.2019

The Australian dollar weakened in today's trading against the greenback following weak economic data and continued uncertainty in global markets.

Government data revealed that the manufacturing PMI for manufacturing activity stood at 51.3 points last month compared to the previous reading of 51.6 points.

There are conflicting signals from the United States, where US President Donald Trump stressed that his country's economy is not approaching a recession, and that trade negotiations with the Chinese side and other countries and economic blocs are going well, but at the same time the Federal Reserve demanded a significant rate cut to revive the growth.

Many central banks, including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia, are moving towards further rate cuts.

Investors are awaiting the US economy to release the housing market data from the release of the New Home Sales which may reflect a 0.2% decline to 645K versus a 7.0% rise of 646K in June, in conjunction with Fed Governor Jerome's speech. Powell under the title "Challenges of Monetary Policy" during the proceedings of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

This comes hours after last Wednesday's release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on July 30-31, in which it was acknowledged to cut interest rates on federal funds for the first time in more than a decade by 25 basis points to between 2.00% and 2.25%, which was in line with expectations at the time, with the view that the reduction came to support the pace of growth and combating the weakness of inflation in the shadows of trade protectionism.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD is attempting to break support for the symmetrical triangle, reinforcing expectations that the bearish trend will continue over the coming sessions, targeting 0.6700 as the next major stop.

SMA 50 continues to support the suggested bearish wave, which requires stability below 0.6830.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6680 support and 0.6800 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.