EUR Analysis 22.08.2019

The single currency of the European Union fluctuated in a narrow range tilted to decline during the Asian session to witness the rebound from the highest since July 19 last for the ninth session in twelve sessions against the US dollar on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by euro zone economies The US economy is the largest in the world.

At 05:10 am GMT, EUR / USD fell 0.02% to 1.1083 levels from the opening at 1.1085, after hitting a session low of 1.1081 and a high of 1.1092.

Investors are looking ahead to the French, German and regional economies as a preliminary reading of the Markit Manufacturing and Service Purchasing Managers' Index for the month, which may reflect the shrinking service sector expansion and the contraction of the industrial sector in France, Germany and the region as a whole. The accounts of the ECB monetary policy meeting held on 25 July.

This comes before the Eurozone economies also see the release of the Consumer Confidence reading, which may reflect a stable deflation at 7, little changed from July. Otherwise, markets are looking forward to the outcome of the meeting later today for the German Chancellor. Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to discuss the Brexit file.

On the other hand, we are awaiting the US economy for the release of the index of claims which may show a decline of 3 thousand applications to 217 thousand applications during the week last Saturday, before we witness the release of the preliminary reading of the manufacturing and services PMI Markit for America, Expectations were for the manufacturing sector to widen to 50.5 from 50.4 and the services sector widened to 52.9 from 53.0 in July.

Leading indicators, which may show a rise of 0.2% versus a decline of 0.3% in June, coinciding with the launch of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is attended by global central bankers and finance ministers as well as academics and financial market participants from all over the world. Tomorrow we will see Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell's speech on “Monetary Policy Challenges” during the seminar.

This comes hours after the release of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on July 30-31, in which it was approved to cut interest rates on federal funds for the first time in more than a decade by 25 basis points to between 2.00% And 2.25%, which was in line with expectations, with the view that the reduction came to support the pace of growth and combat the weakness of inflation in the shadows of trade protectionism.

Technical Analysis

EURUSD has not shown any strong movement in the past sessions, continuing to fluctuate around the 1.1100 level, thus, no change to the bearish trend scenario based on stability below 1.1180, supported by SMA 50, waiting to visit 1.1000 as the next major target.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.1000 support and 1.1150 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.