AUD Analysis 21.08.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow uptrend range during the Asian session to witness the fifth session rebound in eleven sessions from the lowest since March 18, 2009 against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed from the Australian economy and on the threshold of developments and upcoming economic data Wednesday by the largest US economy in the world.

At 04:26 am GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.09% to 0.6784 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6778, after the pair achieved the highest during the trading session at 0.6791, while the lowest level at 0.6773.

This was followed by the release of the Melbourne Institute's Leading Indicators, which showed a rise of 0.1% versus a decline of 0.1% in June, hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting held on the sixth of this month. Which held interest rates at an all-time low of 1.00%, which was expected by market analysts at the time.

In the same context, the minutes stated that it is reasonable to expect an "extended period" of low interest rates, while stating that the RBA monetary policy makers reviewed the experience of developed countries with unconventional monetary policy, and that a series of measures were noted. Are likely to be more effective than individual steps.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy statement mentioned that monetary policy makers believed core inflation could reach 1.5% by December, before growth accelerates to 1.75% by the end of next year. 2% by the middle and end of 2021, amid the indication that near-term risks to economic growth are more negative.

Earlier this month, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe testified before the House of Representatives in Canberra that the Reserve Bank of Australia was ready to expand interest rate cuts if needed to support the labor market and stimulate inflation. Interest rate twice in quick succession, we thought it appropriate to wait and assess the consequences of monetary easing.

RBA Governor Lowe said on the 9th of this month that it is reasonable to expect a prolonged period of low interest rates in Australia, explaining that it is unlikely but likely to move to a minimum level of zero interest rates, adding that he hopes to be able to Avoid that, while expressing that he is willing to use exceptional monetary policy if justified.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the US economy to release the housing market data with the release of the existing home sales index which may show a rise of 2.5% to 5.41 million homes compared to a decline of 1.7% at 5.27 million homes in June, and that came before the We are witnessing the release of the minutes of the FOMC meeting held at the end of July.

By tomorrow, we look forward to the launch of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium at the Kansas City Federal Reserve, which will be attended by global central bankers and finance ministers as well as academics and financial market participants from around the world. Jerome Powell under the title "Monetary Policy Challenges" during the seminar.

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD pair is trading within a symmetrical triangle pattern with the picture appearing, waiting for the breach of 0.6745 to confirm the continuation of the main bearish trend, with the first target at 0.6700.

Thereby, we will continue to favor the bearishness over intraday and short term basis unless 0.6830 is breached and stability above it.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6720 support and 0.6830 reistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.