AUD Analysis 20.08.2019

The Australian dollar rose during the Asian session to witness the rebound for the fourth session in ten sessions from the lowest since March 18, 2009 against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed on Tuesday on the Australian economy and amid the lack of economic data earlier this week by the economy American largest economy in the world.

At 03:05 AM GMT, the Australian dollar against the US dollar rose 0.28% to 0.6783 levels compared to the opening levels at 0.6764, after the pair achieved the highest during the session at 0.6784, while the lowest level at 0.6755.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unveiled the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) meeting on June 6, during which RBA monetary policy makers approved the fixing of short-term interest rates for the first time in three meetings after they were cut in the previous two meetings by 25 points. Basis to 1.00% at all time lows, which was expected by market analysts at the time.

In the same context, the minutes stated that it is reasonable to expect an "extended period" of low interest rates, while stating that the RBA monetary policy makers reviewed the experience of developed countries with unconventional monetary policy, and that a series of measures were noted. Are likely to be more effective than individual steps.

Earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy statement mentioned that monetary policy makers believed core inflation could reach 1.5% by December, before growth accelerates to 1.75% by the end of next year. 2% by the middle and end of 2021, amid the indication that near-term risks to economic growth are more negative.

Earlier this month, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe testified before the House of Representatives in Canberra that the Reserve Bank of Australia was ready to expand interest rate cuts if needed to support the labor market and stimulate inflation. Interest rate twice in quick succession, we thought it appropriate to wait and assess the consequences of monetary easing.

RBA Governor Lowe said on the 9th of this month that it is reasonable to expect a prolonged period of low interest rates in Australia, explaining that it is unlikely but likely to move to a minimum level of zero interest rates, adding that he hopes to be able to Avoid that, while expressing that he is willing to use exceptional monetary policy if justified.

On the other hand, investors are awaiting the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee and Randall Quarles, Deputy Governor of the Federal Reserve, on community development at the Utah Center for Settlement Stations in Salt Lake City. Open held at the end of last July.

At the July 30-31 meeting in Washington, the Fed's monetary policy makers approved the first Fed cut in more than a decade by 25 basis points to between 2.00% and 2.25%. This was in line with expectations at the time, while saying that the reduction was to support the pace of growth and to combat the weakness of inflation in the shadows of trade protectionism.

By Thursday, the markets are looking forward to the Kansas City Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which will be attended by global central bankers and finance ministers as well as academics and financial market participants from around the world. Federal Reserve Jerome Powell under the title "Monetary Policy Challenges" during the seminar.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD continues to fluctuate in a tight path, and continues to move within the descending channel shown, thus, the bearish trend will remain intact for the next period, unchanged by SMA 50, noting that our next target is at 0.6700, while achieving it requires stability. Below 0.6830.

Expected trading range for today is between 0.6720 support and 0.6830 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.