EUR Analysis 15.08.2019

The euro-zone single currency fluctuated in a narrow, bullish range during the Asian session to see its 7th rebound in eleven sessions from the lowest since May 16, 2017 against the US dollar amid the lack of economic data from euro-denominated economies on the cusp of Economic developments and data expected on Thursday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

At 04:50 am GMT, the euro against the US dollar rose 0.11% to 1.1151 levels compared to the opening at 1.1139 after the pair reached its highest level during the trading session at 1.1152, while the lowest level at 1.1135.

Investors are now awaiting the US economy to unveil retail sales, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.3% from 0.4% last June. The core index of growth stabilized at 0.4%, little changed from June.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the preliminary reading of the single labor cost index, which reflects a rise of 1.7% versus a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter, while the preliminary reading of the productivity of non-agricultural sectors may show slower growth to 1.4% compared to 3.4% in the first quarter, in conjunction with The release of the Claims Index which may show an increase of 3 thousand applications to 212 thousand applications during the week elapsed last Saturday.

Markets from the world's largest industrialized countries are also looking to reveal the Philadelphia Industrial Index, which may reflect a contraction of 10.1 vs. 21.8 in July, and the release of the New York Industrial Index, which may also show a contraction of 2.1 vs. 4.3 v. July, ahead of the release of the Industrial Production which may show a 0.1% growth versus the zero level in June.

In the same context, the energy utilization rate reading may show growth slowed to 77.8% vs. 77.9% in June, before the housing market data was released with the housing index released by the National Association of Home Builders which may reflect an upward trend. It stood at 66 vs. 65 in July, coinciding with the release of wholesale inventories which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.1% vs. 0.3% in May.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair made negative trading yesterday evening, approaching our first awaited target of 1.1100, keeping the bearish scenario intact over intraday basis, noting that breaching the mentioned level will push the price to 1.1000 as the next major target.

Therefore, we will continue to favor the bearish bias for today, supported by negative pressure from SMA 50 unless the price pushes to breach 1.1180 - 1.1205 and hold above it.

Expected trading range for today is between 1.1050 support and 1.1200 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.