AUD Analysis 15.08.2019

The Australian dollar rose during the Asian session to witness the rebound for the third session in seven sessions from the lowest since March 18, 2009 against the US dollar following the developments and economic data that followed the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected on Thursday by the US economy Economy in the world.

At 02:29 AM GMT, the AUDUSD rose 0.46% to 0.6779 levels from opening levels of 0.6748, after the pair reached its highest level during the session at 0.6788, while the lowest level at 0.6746.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's Assistant Governor of the Risk Management Committee, Jay Diabel, spoke at the annual Risk Conference on “Risk to Expectations” in Sydney, before the Melbourne Institute's Consumer Expectations of Inflationary Pressures rose to 3.5% vs. 3.2% in July.

In addition to the disclosure of labor market data, which showed the stability of unemployment rates at 5.2%, little changed from last June, bringing the current reading in line with expectations, and this came with the reading of the change in employment index rose by 41.1 thousand vs. The 2.3K decline in June, beating expectations for a rise of about 14.2K.

On the other hand, markets are looking ahead to the US economy to reveal the retail sales figure, which accounts for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which may reflect slower growth to 0.3% vs. 0.4% in June, while The core reading of the index shows growth stabilizing at 0.4%, little changed from June.

This comes in conjunction with the release of the preliminary reading of the single labor cost index, which reflects a rise of 1.7% versus a decline of 1.6% in the first quarter, while the preliminary reading of the productivity of non-agricultural sectors may show slower growth to 1.4% compared to 3.4% in the first quarter, in conjunction with The release of the Claims Index which may show an increase of 3 thousand applications to 212 thousand applications during the week elapsed last Saturday.

Markets from the world's largest industrialized nations are also looking to reveal the Philadelphia Industrial Index, which may reflect a contraction to 10.1 vs. 21.8 in July, in conjunction with the release of the New York Industrial Index which may also reflect a contraction to 2.1 vs. 4.3 in July, before we see the release of the Industrial Production reading which may show 0.1% growth versus the zero level in June.

In the same context, the energy utilization rate reading may show growth slowed to 77.8% vs. 77.9% in June, before the housing market data was released with the housing index released by the National Association of Home Builders which may reflect an upward trend. It stood at 66 vs. 65 in July, coinciding with the release of wholesale inventories which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.1% vs. 0.3% in May.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD has been trading sideways in recent sessions, holding steady below 0.6830, while Stochastic continues to provide negative signals on the daily time frame.

Therefore, the bearish scenario will remain valid during the coming sessions provided that it remains below 0.6830, noting that we are waiting to visit 0.6700 as the next major stop.

Expected trading range or today is between 0.6720 support and 0.6830 resistance.

Expected trend for today: Bearish.