Gold Analysis 06.08.2019

Gold futures fell during the Asian session to see their rebound from the top since May 3, 2013 amid the rise of the US dollar index, showing a rebound from the lowest since July 22 according to the opposite relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected today Tuesday from the US economy, the largest economy in the world, which includes a discussion of members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.63% to currently trade at $ 1,464.06 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,467.50 per ounce. The contracts started the session on a bullish price gap after closing the trading session Yesterday at $ 1.463.50 per ounce, with the USD index rising 0.39% to 97.62 compared to the opening at 97.24.

Investors are currently waiting for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Chairman and Federal Reserve Chairman Charles Evans to speak at a media briefing hosted by the Chicago Fed, before we also see the US economy reading a statistical reading of job opportunities and job turnover that may reflect a rise To 7.34 million from 7.32 million in May.

Otherwise, we would like to point out that the rise in the price of gold this week to the highest since early May 2013 before entering the Asian session in a limited corrective actions comes amid the growing concern of the markets due to the escalation of trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world And turn investors from high-risk assets, headed by stocks to safe havens, especially gold, which is a haven until the vision becomes clearer.

In view of the development of trade tensions between the United States and China, yesterday we followed the remarks of the Chinese Ministry of Commerce that Chinese companies may stop buying US agricultural products in response to US President Donald Trump's decision Thursday to impose 10% customs tariffs on China's imports worth $ 300 billion Which is supposed to come into effect by early September.

China's Ministry of Commerce said earlier this week that it would not "exclude" tariffs on agricultural goods purchased after August 3, and China is one of the largest importers of US agricultural products. In another context, the People's Bank of China (Central Bank of China) Yi Gang also said yesterday that his country will not use currency exchange rates as a tool in the escalating trade dispute with the United States.

We should point out that yesterday's high exchange rate of the dollar for the seven-yuan mark for the first time since 2008 before falling back below that barrier has been widely criticized by Washington. US President Trump expressed the weakness of the yuan as "a major violation" US Treasury Secretary Stephen Manuchen has said he will work "with the IMF to eliminate the unfair competitive advantage created by recent measures taken by China."

US President Trump yesterday called on the Fed to act and tackle the latest Chinese action, boosting market speculation of further Fed rate cuts in the coming period after the Federal Reserve last week cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in more From a decade to between 2.00% and 2.25% in the wake of "global developments" and "inflation".

In another context, markets are currently looking for the RBA's decisions and directions with the release of the monetary policy statement and the monetary policy makers' decision to set rates for expectations for the first time in three meetings after having been reduced by 25 basis points to 1.00% As part of efforts to support the economy in the face of trade challenges in recent times.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold is showing some bearishness approaching the test of 1450.00 again, affected by Stochastic negativity, noting that stability above this level represents the first protection factor for the continuation of the expected bullish trend for the next period, which targets mainly 1500.00.

All in all, we continue to favor the bullish trend that gets positive support from the SMA 50 unless the 1450.00 and 1435.00 levels are broken and stability below it.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1450.00 and resistance at 1480.00

The general trend for today is bullish.