Gold Analysis 02.08.2019

Gold futures fell during the Asian session to rebound from the highest since May 9, 2013 amid the rise of the dollar index, adding stability near the top in two years according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments and economic data expected Friday from the US economy The world's largest economy.

Gold futures for December delivery fell 1.00% to currently trade at $ 1,434.50 per ounce compared to the opening at $ 1,445.57 an ounce, with the US dollar rising 0.02% to 98.43 compared to the opening at 98.41.

Investors are currently looking for the US economy to reveal last month's labor market data, which could reflect a drop in unemployment to a 49-year low of 3.6% from 3.7% in June, while the Non-Farm Payrolls Job creation to 164 thousand against 224 thousand, and may read the index of average income per hour growth stability of 0.2%.

This comes ahead of the release of the trade balance, which may reflect a contraction of the deficit to $ 54.2 billion from $ 55.5 billion in May, and before the factory orders reading, which may show a 0.6% rise versus a 0.7% drop in May, With the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index extending to 98.5 from July's preliminary reading of 98.4 versus 98.2 in June.

In addition, Thursday we were surprised by President Donald Trump's decision to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and goods to China worth $ 300 billion. The resolution will come into force at the beginning of September. Implementation will coincide with a new round of US-China trade talks in Washington.

The last two rounds of trade negotiations between the United States and China in Shanghai were followed last Wednesday by China's official Xinhua news agency. The two sides conducted "frank and effective in-depth exchanges," while the White House also said Wednesday that the two sides discussed issues such as transfer Forced technology and intellectual property rights as well as non-tariff and agricultural services and barriers.

In another context, we also followed Wednesday the Federal Open Market Committee's decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points for the first time in more than a decade, which was expected in the markets. Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell said during the press conference Which was held after the expiry of the meetings of the recent Federal Committee that the decision came in view of the "global developments" and "weakening inflation".

Technical Analysis

The price of gold gained strongly yesterday, starting today with a bearish slope after approaching the 1450.00 level to test the support floor formed at 1430.00 after breaching it in advance, awaiting the resumption of the bullish trend during the coming sessions, which extends to 1500.00 after exceeding 1450.00.

Thus, the bullish trend will be expected over the short and short term unless the level of 1410.90 is broken and stability below it.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1410.00 and resistance at 1450.00

The general trend for today is bullish.