AUD analysis 02.08.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrow bullish range during the Asian session to see its rebound to its second-lowest session since January 3 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed it on the Australian economy and on the eve of economic developments and data expected on Friday by the economy The largest economy in the world.

At 04:48 GMT, the AUDUSD rose 0.15% to 0.6810, compared to the opening levels of 0.6800, after reaching a high of 0.6796, while the seven-month low reached 0.6819.

We followed the Australian economy reading the Retail Sales Index, which showed growth accelerated to 0.4% from 0.1% in May, beating expectations for a 0.3% growth rate. This coincided with the release of inflation data, Producers, which is a preliminary indicator of inflationary pressures, which showed a stable growth of 0.4%, not changed significantly from the first quarter last, contrary to expectations at 0.2%.

On the other hand, investors are currently looking for the US economy to reveal labor market data for the last month, which could reflect a drop in unemployment rates to a 49-year low of 3.6% versus 3.7% in June, while the change in jobs for sectors The pace of job creation slowed to 164,000 from 224,000, and the average hourly earnings index may show a 0.2% growth rate.

This comes ahead of the release of the trade balance, which may reflect a contraction of the deficit to $ 54.2 billion from $ 55.5 billion in May, and before the factory orders reading, which may show a 0.6% rise versus a 0.7% drop in May, With the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index extending to 98.5 from July's preliminary reading of 98.4 versus 98.2 in June.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD was able to break the 0.6830 level and close the daily candlestick below it, supporting expectations that the bearish trend will continue in the coming sessions, paving the way towards 0.6700 which is our next main target.

We note that stability below 0.6830 is important for the continuation of the expected decline as breaching it will push the price to start recovery attempts targeting 0.6890 areas and may extend to 0.6975 before any new attempt to decline.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 0.6740 and the resistance at 0.6840

The general trend for today is bearish.