EUR analysis 31.07.2019

The single currency of the European Union region fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session to see its fourth session retreat in five sessions from its lowest since May 19, 2017 against the US dollar on the brink of economic developments and data expected on Wednesday by speculative economies The euro and the US economy are the largest economy in the world, including the decisions and directions of monetary policy makers in the Federal Reserve and the forthcoming press conference of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell in Washington.

At 05:25 GMT, the EURUSD rose 0.02% to 1.1157, compared to the opening at 1.1155, after reaching a high of 1.1148 and a low of 1.1159.

The markets for Germany, the biggest economy in the euro zone, are looking for a reading of the Retail Sales Index, which could reflect a 0.5% rise from 0.6% in May, while the same index may slow growth to 0.6% versus 4.0% before we see By France's second-largest economy revealed a preliminary reading of the consumer price index which may show a 0.3% contraction versus 0.2% growth in June.

To show the growth data for the fourth largest economy of the euro area Spain with the initial reading of the GDP index, which may reflect the slowdown of growth to 0.6% compared to 0.7% in the first quarter, before the reading of the change in unemployment from Germany, which may rise by two thousand versus Fell by a thousand in June, and unemployment readings for Italy, the region's third-largest economy, may show a rise to 10.0% from 9.9% in May.

This comes before we see the economy of the region as a whole disclosure of inflation data with the publication of the annual CPI, which may reflect the slowdown of growth to 1.0% compared to 1.2% in June, and may show the core annual reading of the same index slowing growth to 1.0% compared to 1.1%, in conjunction with the initial reading of the same index for Italy, which may reflect a stable growth of 0.1% in July.

To the Eurozone GDP as a preliminary reading of GDP, which may reflect a slowdown in growth to 0.2% versus 0.4% in the first quarter, with a reading of unemployment rates for the region as a whole, which may show stability at 7.5% Ahead of Italy's GDP reading, which could show 0.1% contraction versus 0.1% growth in the first quarter.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to release preliminary data for the labor market with the release of the index of change in private sector jobs, which may reflect the acceleration of job creation to 150 thousand jobs added to 102 thousand jobs added in June, before Hours of disclosure of the monthly report of non-agricultural jobs and unemployment rates in addition to the average income per hour for the month.

This comes before we also see later in the day by the world's largest economy reading the labor cost index, which may reflect a stable growth of 0.7%, unchanged from the first quarter, and before the disclosure of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index May extend to 51.7 versus a contraction of 51.7 in June.

Leading to the release of the monetary policy statement of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30-31 and the Fed's decision on interest rates amid expectations that monetary policy makers will cut federal funds rates by 25 basis points to between 2% and 2% . This comes half an hour before the Fed's upcoming press conference, Jerome Powell.

Technical Analysis

The EUR / USD pair is slightly bullish to move around 1.1150, and is affected by the positive stochastic, but the price stability below 1.1180 keeps the bearish scenario intact for the coming period, supported by negative pressure formed by SMA 50, awaiting targets of 1.1100 and 1.1000 as next major stations.

We note the importance of caution during trading today, as markets wait for the Federal Reserve to decide on its interest rate, which may cause mixed and strong trading in major currency pairs.

The trading range for today is expected between 1.1050 and 1.1220 support

The general trend for today is bearish.