AUD analysis 31.07.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a narrowly bullish range during the Asian session to see its rebound from its lowest level since June 19 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed on the Australian economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Wednesday by the US economy, Which includes the decisions and directions of monetary policy makers at the Federal Reserve and the forthcoming press conference of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell in Washington.

At 3:12 am GMT, the AUDUSD rose 0.19% to 0.6885 compared with the opening levels of 0.6872, after recording a high of 0.6890, while a six-week low of 0.6863.

As for the Australian economy, inflation data was released with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which showed a 0.6% growth against stability at zero levels in the previous quarter's reading, beating expectations of a 0.5% growth, while the core reading of the index itself showed acceleration Growth to 0.4% in line with expectations versus 0.3% in the first quarter.

The annualized reading of the consumer price index showed growth accelerated to 1.6% from 1.3% in the previous year's first quarter reading, beating expectations for a 1.5% growth rate, while the core annual reading showed a 1.6% growth rate unchanged Over the first quarter, also outperformed expectations that growth will slow to 1.5%.

On the other hand, investors are currently waiting for the US economy to release preliminary data for the labor market with the release of the index of change in private sector jobs, which may reflect the acceleration of job creation to 150 thousand jobs added to 102 thousand jobs added in June, before Hours of disclosure of the monthly report of non-agricultural jobs and unemployment rates in addition to the average income per hour for the month.

This comes before we also see later in the day by the world's largest economy reading the labor cost index, which may reflect a stable growth of 0.7%, unchanged from the first quarter, and before the disclosure of the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index May extend to 51.7 versus a contraction of 51.7 in June.

Leading to the release of the monetary policy statement of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30-31 and the Fed's decision on interest rates amid expectations that monetary policy makers will cut federal funds rates by 25 basis points to between 2% and 2% . This comes half an hour before the Fed's upcoming press conference, Jerome Powell.

The AUDUSD is showing further bearishness to creep towards our awaited target at 0.6832, so that the bearish trend will remain for the next period, consistently within the descending channel shown in the image, supported by SMA 50, with the continuation of the expected decline dependent on stability below 0.6975 .

The trading range for today is among the key support at 0.6830 and resistance at 0.6930

The general trend for today is bearish.