Gold analysis 30.07.2019

Gold futures traded in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to bounce back from July 19, when it tested its highest since May 10, 2013 as the dollar index rose for the seventh session in nine sessions from the lower Since the fourth of this month according to the inverse relationship between them following the developments and economic data that followed on the Japanese economy and on the eve of developments and economic data expected Tuesday from the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.15% to currently trade at $ 1,437.40 per ounce compared with the opening at $ 1,439.50 per ounce. The contracts opened the session on a bullish price gap after concluding Yesterday's trading at $ 1,433.30 an ounce, amid the dollar index rose 0.05% to 98.13 compared to the opening at 98.08.

We followed the Japanese economy as the third economy in the world to disclose data that will work with the reading of the Unemployment Rate Index which showed a drop to 2.3% last May and expectations at 2.4%. In the same context, Down to 1.61 from the previous reading for May and 1.62.

This was before we also saw the world's third-largest industrial manufacturing data release with a preliminary reading of industrial production, which showed a 3.6% drop from 2.0% in May, worse than the 1.7% The index itself expanded to 4.1% from 2.1% in the previous reading for May, in contrast to expectations of a decline of 2.0%.

To the Bank of Japan's decision to keep rates unchanged at 0.10% amid maintaining the asset purchase program unchanged as well as future interest rate trends. With the Bank of Japan cutting its inflation and growth forecasts for the world's third-largest economy, And is looking forward to a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda in Tokyo.

This comes in line with investors' expectations of what will result from the trade negotiations between the United States and China, the world's two largest economies and the two largest industrialized countries, which resumed this week after it was suspended in May with the travel of an American trade delegation led by US Trade Representative Robert China's Lightzer earlier this week, before a Chinese trade delegation heads to Washington by next month.

Otherwise, investors are currently looking for the US economy to reveal spending and personal income data that may reflect slowing personal spending growth to 0.3% from 0.4% in May, slowing personal income growth to 0.3% versus 0.5% in May, and may The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures report shows a slowdown in growth to 0.1% versus 0.2% in May.

This comes ahead of the release of the consumer confidence index, which may expand to 125.2 from 121.5 in June, coinciding with the release of housing market data with the release of existing home sales, which may indicate slowing growth to 0.3 From 1.1% in May, to the launch of the FOMC meeting today and Wednesday in Washington.

Markets are pricing opportunities for Fed monetary policy makers to cut rates for the first time in more than a decade by 25 basis points to between 2.00% and 2.25% by more than 70% and by 50 basis points to 1.75% And 2.00% by nearly 30% according to the Vedomatch tool by the CMA group. This comes ahead of the expected press conference of Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold offered positive trading yesterday to surpass the 50 MA to support the continuation of the main upside trend targeting 1450.00 initially.

A break below 1430.00 is required to facilitate the achievement of the awaited positive targets, with the breach of the above mentioned level extending the upside wave to 1500.00 in the near term, while the expected upside will remain intact provided stability above 1410.90.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1415.00 and resistance at 1445.00

The general trend for today is bullish.