Gold analysis 24.07.2019

Gold futures fluctuated in a narrow upward range during the Asian session to see their rebound for the second session of its highest session since July 17, defying the rise of the US dollar index since June 18, according to the inverse relationship between them on the eve of developments And economic data expected Wednesday by the US economy, the largest economy in the world.

Gold futures for August delivery fell 0.20% to currently trade at $ 1,421.50 per ounce, compared to the opening at $ 1,418.60 an ounce. The contracts started trading on a bearish price gap after closing To $ 1,421.70 an ounce, while the dollar index rose 0.03% to 97.74, the highest in five weeks compared to the opening at 97.72.

Investors are looking for the initial reading of the Industrial and Service PMI Index from the US, amid expectations that the industrial and service sector will expand to 50.9 and 51.6 versus 50.6 and 51.5 in June, before we witness the release of housing market data with The index of new home sales, which may reflect a rise of 5.1% to 659 thousand versus a decline of 7.8% at 626 thousand in May.

This comes hours before the Durable Goods Orders, which account for nearly half of consumer spending, representing more than two-thirds of US GDP, revealed Friday the preliminary reading of second-quarter gross domestic product, which could reflect slower growth for the world's largest economy. To 1.8%, which is the slowest pace of growth of the US economy in two years.

On the other hand, we have followed Tuesday, reported by US President Donald Trump, in a letter to him that an agreement was reached between the poles of the American political Republicans and Democrats on the US budget and the suspension of the work of the ceiling of religion until after the presidential elections and specifically until the end of July of 2021, Almost nine months after the next US presidential election.

In another context, the Bloomberg news agency reported on Tuesday that US Trade Representative Robert Lightzer will go to China next Monday in the first high-level trade negotiations face to face between the two largest economies in the world since the collapse of talks between Washington and Beijing in May, which renewed In one way or another the hopes of investors to resolve the trade disputes between Washington and Beijing.

In the same context, we have followed up some of the report that China started to buy US agricultural products and kept its promises agreed at the last G20. The report also pointed out that the US administration must fulfill its commitments in turn and lift the ban on Huawei, Without that step, the two sides will not be able to reach a trade deal and China will stop buying American products again.

On the other hand, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for a fourth consecutive growth rate in the next nine months of this year and next by 0.1% to 3.2% for 2019 and 3.5% for 2020, as well as renewed concern about the issue of Britain's exit from the European Union following the declaration of the party Conservatives take over former foreign secretary Boris Johnson as party leader and British prime minister in succession to Teresa May, boosted the safe haven gold price cycle until clarity becomes clear. Johnson is one of Britain's strongest opponents of Britain's survival within the EU.

Technical Analysis

The price of gold opens today with a new bullish bias in an attempt to resume the main ascending trend, supported by SMA 50, while Stochastic continues to move near oversold areas.

Therefore, we believe that opportunities are available to trade positively during the coming sessions, awaiting the visit of 1450.00, which represents our main target, while stability above 1410.90 is an important condition for the continuation of the suggested bullishness.

The trading range for today is expected among the support at 1410.00 and resistance at 1440.00

The general trend for today is bullish.