AUD analysis 16.07.2019

The Australian dollar fluctuated in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see its rebound from its highest since July 4 against the US dollar following developments and economic data that followed it on the Australian economy and on the eve of economic developments and data expected Tuesday by the largest economy Including Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell and several members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

At 02:27 GMT, the Australian dollar was down 0.07% at 0.7034, compared with the opening levels of 0.7039, after reaching a low of 0.7033, while a two-week high of 0.7044.

Australian Bank of Australia (BOE) released the minutes of the Central Bank of Australia meeting held on April 2, during which the central bank's monetary policy makers approved a short-term benchmark interest rate cut of 25 basis points for the second straight session on To 1.00% from 1.25%, which was expected by market analysts at the time.

"The board will continue to monitor labor market developments closely and adjust monetary policy if necessary to support sustainable growth and inflation target over time," said the Bank of Australia Reserve Monetary Policy Minutes. "The low interest rates will provide more jobs for Australians and help make progress Or about the inflation target. "

On the other hand, investors are looking for Federal Reserve Vice President and Federal Open Market Committee member Michelle Bowman to make an opening remarks at the Federal Fed Hearing event in Atlanta before we see a reading of the import price index which could reflect a 0.7% 0.3% in May, and the same year's index may show a widening of the decline to 2.1% versus 1.5%.

This comes in conjunction with the disclosure by the US economy of reading retail sales, which account for about half of consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US GDP, which may reflect slower growth to 0.1% versus 0.5% in May, as may appear reading Core for the same index slowed growth to 0.1% versus 0.5% in May.

Also, the world's largest industrial producer may see the Industrial Production Index reading, which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.1% from 0.4% in May, while the Energy Efficiency Index may show growth accelerating to 78.2% from 78.1% in May, Before we see the release of housing market data with the housing index reading released by the National Association of Home Builders, which may reflect stability at a value of 64 in June.

This comes in conjunction with the reading of wholesale stocks, which may show a slowdown in growth to 0.4% from 0.5% in April, with Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell delivering a speech entitled "Post-crisis monetary policy aspects" at the French G7 Presidency 2019 in Paris, before Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President and Federal Committee member Charles Evans spoke at a CNN-ABC television interview.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD is testing the 0.7044 level now and is still below it, accompanied by stochastic access to overbought areas, while the pair is expected to push the pair downwards to resume the main bearish trend, with its first target at 0.6900.

Therefore, we will keep our bearish outlook intact, provided that the pair maintains its stability below 0.7044, noting that breaching this level will turn the intraday and short term trend upside.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 0.6980 and resistance at 0.7080.

The general trend for today is bearish.