Gold analysis 10.07.2019

Gold futures traded in a tight range slipping towards the Asian session to see their fourth session retreat in six sessions from its highest since June 21, when it tested its highest since May 14 of 2013, amid the positive stability of the dollar index according to Of the inverse relationship between them after the developments and economic data that followed Wednesday by the Chinese economy, the world's largest consumer of metals.

On the eve of the economic developments and data expected by the US economy, the world's largest economy, which includes the first half of the Fed's semi-annual testimony to the US Congress in Washington, June in Washington.

Gold futures for August delivery fell 0.38% to currently trade at $ 1,394.70 per ounce from the opening at $ 1,400.00 an ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.02% to 97.51 compared to the opening at 97.419.

We have followed the Chinese economy to reveal the inflation data, which showed the stability of the growth of inflationary pressures with the annual reading of the consumer price index stabilized growth of 2.7%, unchanged from the previous reading last year of May, consistent with expectations, the annual reading The PPI showed stability at zero levels versus 0.6% growth in May, below expectations of 0.2%.

On the other hand, investors are currently awaiting the US economy for the final reading of the wholesale stocks index, which may show a stable growth of 0.4%, unchanged from the preliminary reading for May and against 0.8% growth in April, in conjunction with the launch of half The first from Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell's semi-annual policy on monetary policy to the House Financial Services Committee.

To reveal the minutes of the Federal Committee meeting held on June 18-19, during which Federal Reserve policy makers kept benchmark interest rates between 2.25% and 2.50% for the fourth meeting in a row, revealing their expectations at the time Federalism over growth rates, inflation and unemployment as well as future interest rates for the next three years.

The Federal Commission last month dropped the word "patient" from its statement and added "we will act as necessary" to maintain the economy, which in turn opened the way for a possible reduction in federal interest rates later. In particular, Members see a reduction this year, knowing that the average forecast did not reflect any reduction this year, but next year 2020.

At a press conference following the Federal Reserve meeting in Washington, Fed Governor Paul said that some Fed monetary policy makers believe the issue of soft monetary policy has been strengthened, stressing that the Commission will continue to monitor developments and economic data closely in the coming period to determine The future of monetary policy depending on those developments and data.

We would like to point out that Powell noted early this month that the broader market expectations of a federal interest rate cut at the next FOMC meeting were not necessarily achieved, limiting the chances of a reduction in the Fed at the next meeting on July 30-31. , And fell expectations of markets down last Friday with the addition of the US economy last month jobs exceeded expectations.

Technical Analysis

Gold has tested a new test of 1400.30 and maintained its stability below it, where SMA 50 meets this resistance to add more strength to it, noting that Stochastic is providing a negative cross signal now, which is a negative incentive waiting for it to contribute the price to resume the downside correction , Which targets 1376.30 as a next stop.

Therefore, the bearish trend will remain likely for the coming period unless the breach is breached at 1400.30 and stability above it.

The trading range for today is among the support at 1376.00 and resistance at 1405.00.

The general trend for today is bearish.